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Markov or not Markov - this should be a question

  • Bode, Eckhardt

    ()

  • Bickenbach, Frank

    ()

Although it is well known that Markov process theory, frequently applied in the literature on income convergence, imposes some very restrictive assumptions upon the data generating process, these assumptions have generally been taken for granted so far. The present paper proposes, resp. recalls chi-square tests of the Markov property, of spatial independence, and of homogeneity across time and space to assess the reliability of estimated Markov transition matrices. As an illustration we show that the evolution of the income distribution across the 48 coterminous U.S. states from 1929 to 2000 clearly has not followed a Markov process.

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File URL: http://www-sre.wu-wien.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa02/cd-rom/papers/024.pdf
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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa02p024.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p024
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  1. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "The empirics of growth and convergence: A selective review," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-73, January.
  4. Fingleton, B & McCombie, J S L, 1998. "Increasing Returns and Economic Growth: Some Evidence for Manufacturing from the European Union Regions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 89-105, January.
  5. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Damien Neven & Claudine Gouymte, 1995. "Regional Convergence in the European Community," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 47-65, 03.
  8. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December.
  9. Sergio J. Rey, 2001. "Spatial Dependence in the Evolution of Regional Income Distributions," Urban/Regional 0105001, EconWPA.
  10. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
  11. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  12. Fingleton, Bernard, 1997. "Specification and Testing of Markov Chain Models: An Application to Convergence in the European Union," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 385-403, August.
  13. Keller, Wolfgang, 2000. "Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(1), pages 17-47, January.
  14. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
  15. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May.
  16. Eckhardt Bode, 2001. "Is Regional Innovative Activity Path-dependent? An Empirical Analysis for Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1058, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  17. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
  18. Bernard Fingleton, 2000. "Convergence: International comparisons based on a simultaneous equation model with regional effects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 285-305.
  19. Bode, Eckhardt, 1998. "Lokale Wissensdiffusion und regionale Divergenz in Deutschland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1038, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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