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Markov or not Markov - this should be a question


  • Bode, Eckhardt


  • Bickenbach, Frank



Although it is well known that Markov process theory, frequently applied in the literature on income convergence, imposes some very restrictive assumptions upon the data generating process, these assumptions have generally been taken for granted so far. The present paper proposes, resp. recalls chi-square tests of the Markov property, of spatial independence, and of homogeneity across time and space to assess the reliability of estimated Markov transition matrices. As an illustration we show that the evolution of the income distribution across the 48 coterminous U.S. states from 1929 to 2000 clearly has not followed a Markov process.

Suggested Citation

  • Bode, Eckhardt & Bickenbach, Frank, 2002. "Markov or not Markov - this should be a question," ERSA conference papers ersa02p024, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p024

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Levell & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Constructing Full Adult Life-cycles from Short Panels," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 5-40.
    2. Sabino da Silva Porto Junior & Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro, 2003. "Dinâmica Espacial da Renda Per capita e Crescimento Entre os Municípios da Região Nordeste do Brasil - uma Análise Markoviana," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e54, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. repec:bla:tvecsg:v:107:y:2016:i:5:p:522-539 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Paul A. David & Francesco Rullani, 2008. "Dynamics of innovation in an “open source” collaboration environment: lurking, laboring, and launching FLOSS projects on SourceForge," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 647-710, August.
    5. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    6. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.
    7. Zier, Patrick, 2013. "Econometric impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy in East German agriculture," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 71, number 71.
    8. Paul A. David & Francesco Rullani, 2006. "Micro-dynamics of Free and Open Source Software Development. Lurking, laboring and launching new projects on SourceForge," LEM Papers Series 2006/26, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Alejandro Rodriguez Caro & Santiago Rodriguez Feijoó & Carlos Gonzalez Correa, 2005. "Markov Chain approach to Purchasing Power Convergence in the 15 European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa05p457, European Regional Science Association.
    10. repec:eee:reensy:v:123:y:2014:i:c:p:171-182 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2005. "Convergence of EU-regions: A literature report," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 80, University of Kassel, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    12. Paul Bishop & Peter Gripaios, 2005. "Patterns Of Persistence And Mobility In Gdp Per Head Across Gb Counties," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 96(5), pages 529-540, December.
    13. Enrico Fabrizi & Gianni Guastella & Stefano Marta & Francesco Timpano, 2016. "Determinants of Intra-Distribution Dynamics in European Regions: An Empirical Assessment of the Role of Structural Intervention," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(5), pages 522-539, December.
    14. Luis Armando Galvis, 2015. "Crecimiento económico y demográfico regional en Colombia, 1985-2012," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 17(33), pages 183-201, July-Dece.
    15. Paul Bishop & Peter Gripaios, 2006. "Earnings convergence in UK counties: a distribution dynamics approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 29-33.
    16. Patricio Aroca & Mariano Bosch & William F. Maloney, 2005. "Spatial Dimensions of Trade Liberalization and Economic Convergence: Mexico 1985--2002," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(3), pages 345-378.
    17. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2005. "Regional convergence, inequality, and space," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 155-176, April.
    18. Sergio J. Rey & Mark V. Janikas, 2003. "Convergence and space," Urban/Regional 0311002, EconWPA, revised 16 Nov 2003.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General


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