IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201324.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial stress, regime switching and macrodynamics: Theory and empirics for the US, EU and non-EU countries

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Pu
  • Semmler, Willi

Abstract

Over-borrowing and financial stress has recently become an important issue in macroeconomic and policy discussions in the US as well as in the EU. In this paper we study two regimes of financial stress. In a regime of high financial stress, stress shocks can have large and persistent impacts on the real side of the economy whereas in regimes of low stress, shocks can easily dissipate having no lasting effects. In order to study the macroeconomic dynamics, with alternative paths resulting from financial stress shocks, we introduce a macromodel with a finance-macro link which uses multi-period decisions framework of economic agents. The agents can, in a finite horizon context, borrow and accumulate assets where however the above two scenarios may occur. The model is solved through nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC). Empirically then we use a Multi-Regime VAR (MRVAR) to study the impact of financial stress shocks on the macroeconomy in a large number of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Pu & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial stress, regime switching and macrodynamics: Theory and empirics for the US, EU and non-EU countries," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201324
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-24
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/70799/1/738602396.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francisco Roch & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts," IMF Working Papers 16/136, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:01:p:4-32_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Overleveraging, Financial Fragility, And The Banking–Macro Link: Theory And Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 4-32, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stress; macro dynamics; MRVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.