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Financial stress, regime switching and macrodynamics: Theory and empirics for the US, the EU and non-EU countries

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  • Semmler, Willi
  • Chen, Pu

Abstract

Over-borrowing and financial stress has recently become an important issue in macroeconomic and policy discussions in the US as well as in the EU. In this paper the authors study two regimes of financial stress. In a regime of high financial stress, stress shocks can have large and persistent impacts on the real side of the economy whereas in regimes of low stress, shocks can easily dissipate having no lasting effects. In order to study the macroeconomic dynamics, with alternative paths resulting from financial stress shocks, the authors introduce a macromodel with a finance-macro link which uses a multi-period decision framework of economic agents. The agents can, in a finite horizon context, borrow and accumulate assets where however the above two scenarios may occur. The model is solved through nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC). Empirically the authors use a multi-regime VAR (MRVAR) to study the impact of financial stress shocks on the macroeconomy in a large number of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Semmler, Willi & Chen, Pu, 2014. "Financial stress, regime switching and macrodynamics: Theory and empirics for the US, the EU and non-EU countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-42.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201420
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2014-20
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2015. "Financial sector and output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 235-263.
    2. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Overleveraging, Financial Fragility, And The Banking–Macro Link: Theory And Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 4-32, January.
    3. Chen, Pu & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Financial stress, regime switching and spillover effects: Evidence from a multi-regime global VAR model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 318-348.
    4. Soodabeh Sarafrazi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Mehmet Balcilar, 2015. "Interactions between real economic and financial sides of the US economy in a regime-switching environment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(60), pages 6493-6518, December.
    5. Willi Semmler & Alexander Haider, 2016. "The perils of debt deflation in the Euro area: a multi regime model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 257-278, May.
    6. Brian Hartley, 2022. "Episodic incidence of Harrodian instability and the Kaleckian growth model: A Markov‐switching approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 268-290, February.
    7. Tomáš Šestořád, 2019. "Multiplikátor vládních výdajů při nulové nominální úrokové míře [Government Expenditure Multiplier at Zero Nominal Interest Rate]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(1), pages 20-47.
    8. Donal Smith, 2016. "The International Impact of Financial Shocks: A Global VAR and Connectedness Measures Approach," Discussion Papers 16/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Kangogo, Moses & Volkov, Vladimir, 2022. "Detecting signed spillovers in global financial markets: A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Zobia Israr Ahmed & Khalid Mustafa, 2019. "Regime-Dependent Effects on Stock Market Return Dynamics: Evidence from SAARC Countries," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 111-132, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Stress; Macro dynamics; MRVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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