IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/hohpro/392013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The political Kuznets curve for Russia: Income inequality, rent seeking regional elites and empirical determinants of protests during 2011/2012

Author

Listed:
  • Hagemann, Harald
  • Kufenko, Vadim

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to apply the theory of the political Kuznets curve to Russia and reveal the key determinants of the probability of recent protests during 2011-2012 in the Russian regions. We apply the political Kuznets curve in the time and spatial dimensions, and find mixed evidence: throughout time, we observe an almost linear and positive relation between income and income distribution, whereas in the spatial dimension there exists an evidence of a concave curve. Empirical investigation of the role of income inequality using the latent variable framework allows us to outmanoeuvre certain measurement issues and state that conventional measures of income inequality, such as the Gini coefficient, may not be able to predict protests. Instead, we use the relation of the governors' family income to the average family income in the region, a proxy for rent-seeking of regional elites, which turns out to be a positive, significant and robust determinant of the protests. Applying additional controls ensures the robustness of the results and highlights the fact that democracy score and the economic factors are also significant. Mapping the distribution of the protests provides information on the clustering effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagemann, Harald & Kufenko, Vadim, 2014. "The political Kuznets curve for Russia: Income inequality, rent seeking regional elites and empirical determinants of protests during 2011/2012," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 39/2013, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hohpro:392013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/90650/1/77523057X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin C. McGuire & Mancur Olson, 1998. "The Economics of Autocracy and Majority Rule: The Invisible Hand and the Use of Force," International Economic Association Series, in: Silvio Borner & Martin Paldam (ed.), The Political Dimension of Economic Growth, chapter 3, pages 38-73, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Aleksey Oshchepkov & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "The Russian Regional Convergence Process," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-26, May.
    3. Sergey Drobyshevsky & Oleg Lugovoy & Ekaterina Astafieva & Anna Kozlovskaya & Pavel Trunin & Lew Lederman, 2005. "Factors of Economic Growth in Russia’s Regions," Published Papers 121, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2012.
    4. Berkowitz, Daniel & DeJong, David N., 2003. "Policy reform and growth in post-Soviet Russia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 337-352, April.
    5. Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2012. "Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection: Application on the Russian Innovative Performance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 337-363, April.
    6. Francesco Scervini, 2012. "Empirics of the median voter: democracy, redistribution and the role of the middle class," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(4), pages 529-550, December.
    7. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422.
    8. Holwegler, Bernhard & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 1998. "Beschäftigungswirkungen der Internationalisierung - Eine Studie aus- und einfließender Direktinvestitionen der Metall- und Elektroindustrie im Raum Stuttgart," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 1/1998, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    9. Kufenko, Vadim, 2012. "Empirical analysis of regional economic performance in Russia: Human capital perspective," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 38/2012, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    10. Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2010. "Methodologies of Analyzing Inter-Regional Income Inequality and Their Applications to Russia," MPRA Paper 66824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Dobler, Constanze & Hagemann, Harald, 2011. "Economic growth in the post-socialist Russian Federation after 1991: The role of Institutions," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 34/2011, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    12. Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück, 2010. "Determinants of Protests: Longitudinal Evidence from Ukraine’s Orange Revolution," Research Working Papers 30, MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict.
    13. Gary S. Becker, 1994. "Rates of Return from College Education," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 161-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Oleg Lugovoy & Vladimir V. Dashkeyev & Ilya Mazaev & Denis Fomchenko & Albert Hecht, 2007. "Analysis of Economic Growth in Regions: Geographical and Institutional Aspect," Published Papers 5, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2007.
    15. De Rosa, Donato & Iootty, Mariana, 2012. "Are natural resources cursed ? an investigation of the dynamic effects of resource dependence on institutional quality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6151, The World Bank.
    16. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Aleksey Oshchepkov & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "The Russian Regional Convergence Process: Where Does It Go?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 861, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Gary S. Becker, 1994. "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck94-1, March.
    18. Daniel Berkowitz & David N. DeJong, 2005. "Entrepreneurship and Post‐socialist Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 25-46, February.
    19. Christoph Luelfesmann, 2007. "Dual Provision of Public Policies in Democracy," Discussion Papers dp07-20, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    20. Spahn, Heinz-Peter, 1998. "Heterogeneous labour, the unemployment equilibrium, and the natural rate," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 2/1998, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    21. Boix, Carles & Svolik, Milan, 2009. "The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions and Power-Sharing in Dictatorships," Papers 10-21-2009b, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
    22. Henry Tam, 2008. "An economic or political Kuznets curve?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 367-389, March.
    23. Sergei Guriev & Andrei Rachinsky, 2005. "The Role of Oligarchs in Russian Capitalism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 131-150, Winter.
    24. Alexander Libman & Vladimir Kozlov & André Schultz, 2012. "Roving Bandits in Action: Outside Option and Governmental Predation in Autocracies," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 526-562, November.
    25. Klick Jonathan, 2005. "Limited Autocracy," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 293-304, September.
    26. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135-135.
    27. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris & Hagemann, Harald, 1998. "Capital shortage unemployment in Germany and the UK," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 3/1998, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    28. Barro, Robert J, 2000. "Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
    29. Alexander Libman, 2012. "Democracy, size of bureaucracy, and economic growth: evidence from Russian regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1321-1352, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harald Hagemann & Vadim Kufenko, 2016. "Economic, structural and socio-psychological determinants of protests in Russia during 2011–2012," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(1), pages 3-30, January.
    2. Sergei Guriev & Elena Vakulenko, 2012. "Convergence between Russian regions," Working Papers w0180, New Economic School (NES).
    3. Lehmann, Hartmut & Silvagni, Maria Giulia, 2013. "Is There Convergence of Russia's Regions? Exploring the Empirical Evidence: 1995–2010," IZA Discussion Papers 7603, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Konstantin Gluschenko, 2010. "Methodologies of Analyzing Inter-Regional Income Inequality and Their Applications to Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp984, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    5. K.P. Gluschenko (glu@nsu.ru ), 2010. "Income inequality in Russian regions: comparative analysis," Journal "Region: Economics and Sociology", Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of Siberian Branch of RAS, vol. 4.
    6. Clement, Christine, 2015. "The formal-informal economy dualism in a retrospective of economic thought since the 1940s," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 43/2015, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    7. Libman, Alexander, 2013. "Natural resources and sub-national economic performance: Does sub-national democracy matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 82-99.
    8. Dobler, Constanze & Hagemann, Harald, 2011. "Economic growth in the post-socialist Russian Federation after 1991: The role of Institutions," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 34/2011, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    9. Vincent Geloso & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2016. "Demographic change and regional convergence in Canada," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1904-1910.
    10. Kym Anderson & Gordon Rausser & Johan Swinnen, 2013. "Political Economy of Public Policies: Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 423-477, June.
    11. Adam, Antonis & Kammas, Pantelis & Lapatinas, Athanasios, 2015. "Income inequality and the tax structure: Evidence from developed and developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 138-154.
    12. Nobuhiro Mizuno & Katsuyuki Naito & Ryosuke Okazawa, 2017. "Inequality, extractive institutions, and growth in nondemocratic regimes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 115-142, January.
    13. Elena Vakulenko, 2016. "Does migration lead to regional convergence in Russia?," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25.
    14. Evgeniya Kolomak, 2013. "Spatial inequalities in Russia: dynamic and sectorial analysis," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 375-402.
    15. Dobler, Constanze, 2011. "Instability, economic stagnation and the role of islam in the North Caucasus," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 35/2011, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    16. Vera Ivanova, 2018. "Spatial convergence of real wages in Russian cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(1), pages 1-30, July.
    17. Olga A. Demidova, 2014. "The asymmetric spatial effects for eastern and western regions of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 50/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    18. Vadim Kufenko & Niels Geiger, 2017. "Stylized Facts of the Business Cycle: Universal Phenomenon, or Institutionally Determined?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 165-187, November.
    19. T. Durant, 2011. "Making executive politics mutually productive and fair," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 141-172, June.
    20. Fabio Padovano, 2013. "Are we witnessing a paradigm shift in the analysis of political competition?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 631-651, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    political Kuznets curve; regional analysis; protests; logit; income inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hohpro:392013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivhohde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.