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Determinants of Protests: Longitudinal Evidence from Ukraine's Orange Revolution

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  • Carlos Bozzoli
  • Tilman Brück

Abstract

This paper is the first study that analyzes the drivers of political protest using longitudinal data from a critical revolution that changed -at least temporarily- the political landscape in a transition country. We make use of a rich dataset consisting of panel data collected before and after the so called "Orange" revolution in Ukraine. Our empirical approach tackles two different -and equally interesting- features of the revolution: the determinants of participation (both in the protests and counter-protests) and the "selection" of participants into different levels of involvement (i.e. intensity of participation). We consider different drivers of participation, from traditional proxies for opportunities and grievances, but we also analyze the role of political and economic preferences, risk tolerance, life satisfaction, and indicators of network connectivity. What emerges from this study is a more nuanced pattern of participation that does not link uniquely to a single theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück, 2011. "Determinants of Protests: Longitudinal Evidence from Ukraine's Orange Revolution," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1115, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1115
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.369942.de/dp1115.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tilman Brück & Alexander M. Danzer & Alexander Muravyev & Natalia Weißhaar, 2007. "Determinants of Poverty during Transition: Household Survey Evidence from Ukraine," ESCIRRU Working Papers 2, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. World Bank, 2002. "Transition, The First Ten Years : Analysis and Lessons for Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14042, December.
    3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    4. Tilman Brück & Alexander M. Danzer & Alexander Muravyev & Natalia Weißhaar, 2007. "Determinants of Poverty during Transition: Household Survey Evidence from Ukraine," ESCIRRU Working Papers 2, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harald Hagemann & Vadim Kufenko, 2016. "Economic, structural and socio-psychological determinants of protests in Russia during 2011–2012," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(1), pages 3-30, January.
    2. Bettarelli Luca, 2017. "From Revolution to Elections. A Comparative Analysis of Tunisia and Egypt," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Hagemann, Harald & Kufenko, Vadim, 2014. "The political Kuznets curve for Russia: Income inequality, rent seeking regional elites and empirical determinants of protests during 2011/2012," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 39/2013, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; protest; transition economy; Ukraine; longitudinal studies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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