IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/456.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agricultural Transformation and Farmers' Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Bonan, Jacopo
  • Kazianga, Harounan
  • Mendola, Mariapia

Abstract

Why adoption rate of potentially profitable agricultural technologies in Africa remains low is still puzzling. This paper uses a randomized control trial to study Ugandan subsistence smallholders' decisions to adopt cash crops. A unique way of eliciting farmers price and yield expectations allows us to investigate the role of farmers' ex-ante beliefs about crop profitability on adoption decisions. We find that the provision of extension services increases oilseeds adoption by 15%, and farmers who under-estimate oilseeds price at baseline are the most likely to adopt the new crops. The results suggest that changes in expectations drive agricultural technology take-up.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonan, Jacopo & Kazianga, Harounan & Mendola, Mariapia, 2020. "Agricultural Transformation and Farmers' Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda," GLO Discussion Paper Series 456, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:456
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/213041/1/GLO-DP-0456.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dean Karlan & Robert Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(2), pages 597-652.
    2. Arouna, Aminou & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Lokossou, Jourdain C., 2021. "Contract farming and rural transformation: Evidence from a field experiment in Benin," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Jacopo Bonan & Laura Pagani, 2018. "Junior Farmer Field Schools, Agricultural Knowledge and Spillover Effects: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Northern Uganda," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 2007-2022, November.
    4. Minten, Bart & Kyle, Steven, 1999. "The effect of distance and road quality on food collection, marketing margins, and traders' wages: evidence from the former Zaire," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 467-495, December.
    5. Kondylis, Florence & Mueller, Valerie & Zhu, Jessica, 2017. "Seeing is believing? Evidence from an extension network experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-20.
    6. Paulina Oliva & B. Kelsey Jack & Samuel Bell & Elizabeth Mettetal & Christopher Severen, 2020. "Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Take-Up and Subsequent Investment in Zambia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 617-632, July.
    7. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2013. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 116-127.
    8. Shawn A. Cole & A. Nilesh Fernando, 2012. "‘Mobile’izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability," Harvard Business School Working Papers 13-047, Harvard Business School, revised Mar 2016.
    9. Jenny C. Aker, 2010. "Information from Markets Near and Far: Mobile Phones and Agricultural Markets in Niger," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 46-59, July.
    10. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "How Do College Students Respond to Public Information about Earnings?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 117-169.
    11. Ambler, Kate & de Brauw, Alan & Godlonton, Susan, 2018. "Agriculture support services in Malawi: Direct effects, complementarities, and time dynamics:," IFPRI discussion papers 1725, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Maha Ashour & Daniel Orth Gilligan & Jessica Blumer Hoel & Naureen Iqbal Karachiwalla, 2019. "Do Beliefs About Herbicide Quality Correspond with Actual Quality in Local Markets? Evidence from Uganda," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(6), pages 1285-1306, June.
    13. Bellemare, Marc F. & Bloem, Jeffrey R., 2018. "Does contract farming improve welfare? A review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 259-271.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Islam, Asadul & Ushchev, Philip & Zenou, Yves & Zhang, Xin, 2019. "The Value of Information in Technology Adoption," IZA Discussion Papers 12672, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Comola, Margherita & Inguaggiato, Carla & Mendola, Mariapia, 2021. "Learning about Farming: Innovation and Social Networks in a Resettled Community in Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 14092, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Gupta, Apoorv & Ponticelli, Jacopo & Tesei, Andrea, 2019. "Technology Adoption and Access to Credit via Mobile Phones," CEPR Discussion Papers 13956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2019. "Transforming developing country agriculture: Removing adoption constraints and promoting inclusive value chain development," Working Papers hal-02287668, HAL.
    4. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2020. "Using agriculture for development: Supply- and demand-side approaches," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Apoorv Gupta & Jacopo Ponticelli & Andrea Tesei, 2020. "Information, Technology Adoption and Productivity: The Role of Mobile Phones in Agriculture," NBER Working Papers 27192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dar, Manzoor & de Janvry, Alain & Emerick, Kyle & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Wiseman, Eleanor, 2020. "Private Input Suppliers as Information Agents for Technology Adoption in Agriculture," CEPR Discussion Papers 15584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Aminou Arouna & Jeffrey D. Michler & Wilfried G. Yergo & Kazuki Saito, 2021. "One Size Fits All? Experimental Evidence on the Digital Delivery of Personalized Extension Advice in Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 596-619, March.
    8. Leavens, Laura & Bauchet, Jonathan & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob, 2021. "After the project is over: Measuring longer-term impacts of a food safety intervention in Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Wouter Zant, 2012. "How does Market Access affect Smallholder Behavior? The Case of Tobacco Marketing in Malawi," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-088/V, Tinbergen Institute, revised 25 Aug 2014.
    10. Wouter Zant, 2018. "Trains, Trade, and Transaction Costs: How Does Domestic Trade by Rail Affect Market Prices of Malawi Agricultural Commodities?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 32(2), pages 334-356.
    11. Bjorn Van Campenhout & David J. Spielman & Els Lecoutere, 2021. "Information and Communication Technologies to Provide Agricultural Advice to Smallholder Farmers: Experimental Evidence from Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 317-337, January.
    12. Mobarak, Ahmed Musfiq & Rosenzweig, Mark, 2013. "Risk, Insurance and Wages in General Equilibrium," Center Discussion Papers 161442, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    13. Lu, Yi & Xie, Huihua & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2016. "Telecommunication externality on migration: Evidence from Chinese villages," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 77-90.
    14. Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Christopher Green & Fei Jiang, 2020. "Mobile Money, Financial Inclusion And Development: A Review With Reference To African Experience," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 753-792, September.
    15. Jean-Philippe Berrou & François Combarnous & Thomas Eekhout, 2017. "Les TIC : une réponse au défi du développement des micro et petites entreprises informelles en Afrique sub-saharienne ?," Working Papers hal-02148324, HAL.
    16. Kenneth Lee & Edward Miguel & Catherine Wolfram, 2016. "Experimental Evidence on the Demand for and Costs of Rural Electrification," NBER Working Papers 22292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Rudolf, Katrin & Romero, Miriam & Asnawi, Rosyani & Irawan, Bambang & Wollni, Meike, 2020. "Effects of information and seedling provision on tree planting and survival in smallholder oil palm plantations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    18. Cano, Alexander & Cortes, Darwin & Mantilla, Cesar & Prada-Medina, Laura & Restrepo, Medardo, 2022. "The trade-off between liquidity and insurance: voucher payments in a lab-in-the-field experiment with Colombian rural workers," OSF Preprints 8ft4e, Center for Open Science.
    19. Tara Mitchell, 2014. "Is Knowledge Power? Competition and Information in Agricultural Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp456, IIIS.
    20. Paola Mallia, 2022. "You reap what (you think) you sow? Evidence on farmers’behavioral adjustments in the case of correct crop varietal identification," Working Papers hal-03597332, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology Adoption; Commercial Farming; Randomized Controlled Trial; Uganda;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.