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Credit gap risk in a first passage time model with jumps

  • Packham, Natalie
  • Schlögl, Lutz
  • Schmidt, Wolfgang M.

The payoff of many credit derivatives depends on the level of credit spreads. In particular, credit derivatives with a leverage component are subject to gap risk, a risk associated with the occurrence of jumps in the underlying credit default swaps. In the framework of first passage time models, we consider a model that addresses these issues. The principal idea is to model a credit quality process as an Itô integral with respect to a Brownian motion with a stochastic volatility. Using a representation of the credit quality process as a time-changed Brownian motion, one can derive formulas for conditional default probabilities and credit spreads. An example for a volatility process is the square root of a Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The model can be implemented efficiently using a technique called Panjer recursion. Calibration to a wide range of dynamics is supported. We illustrate the effectiveness of the model by valuing a leveraged credit-linked note.

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Paper provided by Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Centre for Practical Quantitative Finance (CPQF) in its series CPQF Working Paper Series with number 22.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:cpqfwp:22
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  1. Roßbach, Peter & Gießamer, Dirk, 2009. "Ein eLearning-System zur Unterstützung der Wissensvermittlung von Web-Entwicklern in Sicherheitsthemen," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 116, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  2. Christina E. Bannier, 2010. "Is there a Holdup Benefit in Heterogeneous Multiple Bank Financing?," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 166(4), pages 641-661, December.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
  4. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
  5. Wollersheim, Jutta & Barthel, Erich, 2008. "Kulturunterschiede bei Mergers & Acquisitions: Entwicklung eines Konzeptes zur Durchführung einer Cultural Due Diligence," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 94, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  6. Bannier, Christina E. & Hirsch, Christian W., 2010. "The economic function of credit rating agencies - What does the watchlist tell us?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3037-3049, December.
  7. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
  8. Hirsch, Christian & Bannier, Christina E., 2007. "The economics of rating watchlists: Evidence from rating changes," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  9. Bannier, Christina E. & Behr, Patrick & Güttler, André, 2009. "Rating opaque borrowers: why are unsolicited ratings lower?," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 133, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  10. Bannier, Christina E. & Hänsel, Dennis N., 2007. "Determinants of banks' engagement in loan securitization," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 85, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  11. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "(How) Do Stock Market Returns React to Monetary Policy? - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 253/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  12. Hankir, Yassin & Rauch, Christian & Umber, Marc P., 2009. "It's the market power, stupid! Stock return patterns in international bank M&A," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 129, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  13. Roßbach, Peter, 2009. "Die Rolle des Internets als Informationsbeschaffungsmedium in Banken," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 120, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
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