IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/372015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bracket creep revisited - with and without r>g: Evidence from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Junyi

Abstract

Using German income distribution in 2009, this paper studies the redistributive and revenue effects of bracket creep under various inflation scenarios. We develop a tax micro-simulation model for the newly available Panel on Household Finance (PHF) data. The simulation yields an inverted U-shaped overall redistributive effect of the income tax and social insurance contribution system with respect to the inflation rate, which contrasts with Immervoll (2005) who finds that fiscal drag always enhances the equalising effect. The nominal income growth as well as the deterioration of tax progression at the middle and top of the income distribution between 1998 and 2009 can be the impetus for this change. This result implies that delaying adjustment might reduce redistribution. We also suggest that these results might not be restricted solely to Germany. Additionally, when we introduce the empirical evidence that capital income grows faster than non-capital income 􀝎 > 􀝃, the dual tax system with a flat capital income tax implemented in 2009 further disequalises the after-tax income substantially. Allowing inflation compensation to lean towards the poor by boosting their share of capital income may not be favourable to redistribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Junyi, 2015. "Bracket creep revisited - with and without r>g: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 37/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:372015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/122191/1/839793227.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heer, Burkhard & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2013. "Tax bracket creep and its effects on income distribution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 393-408.
    2. Levy, Horacio & Nogueira, José Ricardo & Siqueira, Rozane Bezerra & Immervoll, Herwig & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2010. "Simulating the impact of inflation on the progressivity of personal income tax in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 64(4), December.
    3. Stefan Bach, 2012. "Abbau der kalten Progression: nicht die einzige Herausforderung beim Einkommensteuertarif," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(12), pages 17-21.
    4. Kirill Pogorelskiy & Christian Seidl & Stefan Traub, 2010. "Tax progression: International and intertemporal comparisons using LIS data," Working Papers 184, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    5. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    6. Herwig Immervoll, 2005. "Falling Up The Stairs: The Effects Of "Bracket Creep" On Household Incomes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 37-62, March.
    7. Giacomo Corneo, 2005. "The Rise and Likely Fall of the German Income Tax, 1958–2005," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 51(1), pages 159-186.
    8. Salverda, Wiemer & Nolan, Brian & Checchi, Daniele & Marx, Ive & McKnight, Abigail & Toth, Istvan Gy (ed.), 2014. "Changing Inequalities in Rich Countries: Analytical and Comparative Perspectives," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199687435.
    9. Kakwani, Nanok C, 1977. "Measurement of Tax Progressivity: An International Comparison," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 87(345), pages 71-80, March.
    10. Keen, Michael & Papapanagos, Harry & Shorrocks, Anthony, 2000. "Tax Reform and Progressivity," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 50-68, January.
    11. Saez, Emmanuel & Zucman, Gabriel, 2014. "Wealth Inequality in the United States since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 10227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Aronson, J Richard & Johnson, Paul & Lambert, Peter J, 1994. "Redistributive Effects and Unequal Income Tax Treatment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 262-270, March.
    13. Peter Haan & Viktor Steiner, 2004. "Distributional and Fiscal Effects of the German Tax Reform 2000: A Behavioral Microsimulation Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 419, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Michael Broer, 2011. "Kalte Progression in der Einkommensbesteuerung," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 91(10), pages 694-698, October.
    15. Jenderny, Katharina, 2013. "Declining Tax Progression and the German Dual Income Tax," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80039, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Thomas Straubhaar & Henning Vöpel & Gerhard Illing & Heiner Flassbeck & Friederike Spiecker & Stefan Bach & Gert Wagner, 2012. "Inflation und Schuldenabbau," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 92(9), pages 583-598, September.
    17. Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(3), pages 1255-1310.
    18. Stefan Bach & Peter Haan & Richard Ochmann, 2013. "Reformvorschläge zur Einkommensteuer: mehr echte und weniger kalte Progression," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(30), pages 3-12.
    19. Saez, Emmanuel, 2003. "The effect of marginal tax rates on income: a panel study of 'bracket creep'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1231-1258, May.
    20. R. A. Musgrave & Tun Thin, 1948. "Income Tax Progression, 1929-48," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 498-498.
    21. Ivica Urban, 2009. "Kakwani decomposition of redistributive effect: Origins, critics and upgrades," Working Papers 148, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    22. Bartels, Charlotte & Jenderny, Katharina, 2014. "The role of capital income for top incomes shares in Germany," Discussion Papers 2014/32, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    23. Michael Förster & Ana Llena-Nozal & Vahé Nafilyan, 2014. "Trends in Top Incomes and their Taxation in OECD Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 159, OECD Publishing.
    24. Plotnick, Robert, 1981. "A Measure of Horizontal Inequity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 283-288, May.
    25. Gerlinde Verbist & Francesco Figari, 2014. "The Redistributive Effect and Progressivity of Taxes Revisited: An International Comparison across the European Union," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(3), pages 405-429, September.
    26. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
    27. Gianni Betti & Gabriella Donatiello & Vijay Verma, 2011. "The siena microsimulation model (sm2) for net-gross conversion of eu-silc income variables," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(1), pages 35-53.
    28. Karl Brenke & Markus M. Grabka, 2011. "Schwache Lohnentwicklung im letzten Jahrzehnt," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(45), pages 3-15.
    29. David Altig & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1993. "Using bracket creep to raise revenue: a bad idea whose time has passed," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-11.
    30. Dardanoni, Valentino & Lambert, Peter J., 2002. "Progressivity comparisons," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 99-122, October.
    31. Jakobsson, Ulf, 1976. "On the measurement of the degree of progression," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1-2), pages 161-168.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Fiscal Drag; Progressivity of Income Tax; Income Distribution; Microsimulation; Capital income taxation;

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:372015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.