Declining Tax Progression and the German Dual Income Tax

This paper analyzes the effect of the introduction of a final withholding tax on capital income on the progression of the German income tax. As previous literature shows, even with synthetic income taxation, tax progression was strongest in the middle of the income distribution, and decreased for high incomes. At the top, notably for the richest top 0.001 % of potential taxpayers, tax progression was not further observable. In 2009, the tax schedule changed and capital income was excluded from the synthetic income tax tariff. Instead, it is taxed at a lower final withholding tax rate. This paper explores the effect of this change on the overall progression on total income. The analysis is based on a microlevel panel dataset of income tax returns between 2001 and 2006, which provides information on the distribution of total taxable income and is particularly representative for the top of the income distribution.