Stabilization Policy as Bifurcation Selection: Would Keynesian Policy Work if the World Really were Keynesian?
This paper is a follow on to our earlier papers exploring the dynamic properties of the UK continuous time macroeconometric model. This paper is focussed on policy implications. We take the position that the term "stabilization policy" implies that the economy would be unstable without policy, and hence stabilization policy only can be understood as bifurcation to stability, conditionally upon the assumption that the economy would be unstable without that policy bifurcation. We apply the methodology of mathematical bifurcation to investigate this point of view. We conclude that bifurcation selection to stability is more complicated than commonly believed to be the case in much Keynesian economics. However, this conclusion is consistent with common views in the mathematical literature on bifurcation of high dimensional systems.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nieuwenhuis, Herman J. & Schoonbeek, Lambert, 1997. "Stability and the structure of continuous-time economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 311-340, July.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998.
"Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
- GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel, 1997. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1997088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wandasiewicz, S., 1994. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a second-order continuous time macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 731-761.
- Engelbert Dockner & Gustav Feichtinger, 1991. "On the optimality of limit cycles in dynamic economic systems," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 31-50, February.
- Barnett, William A. & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1997. "A single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 157-192.
- William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 1996. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Econometrics 9602005, EconWPA, revised 29 Jan 1997.
- William Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 2012. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition Among Tests For Nonlinearity And Chaos," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201219, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
- Barnett William A. & He Yijun, 1999. "Stability Analysis of Continuous-Time Macroeconometric Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, January.
- Herbert E. Scarf, 1959. "Some Examples of Global Instability of the Competitive Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 79, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1997. "Comparing Four Models of Aggregate Fluctuations due to Self-Fulfilling Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 96-147, January.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1995. "Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1979. "The hopf bifurcation and the existence and stability of closed orbits in multisector models of optimal economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 421-444, December.
- Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wymer, C. R., 1992. "Gaussian estimation of a second order continuous time macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 313-351, October.
- Goenka, Aditya & Kelly, David L. & Spear, Stephen E., 1998. "Endogenous Strategic Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 97-125, July.
- Aditya Goenka & David Kelly & Stephen Spear, "undated". "Endogenous Strategic Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 2, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
- Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)