Stabilization Policy as Bifurcation Selection: Would Keynesian Policy Work if the World Really Were Keynesian?
The macroeconomic concept of "stabilization policy" implicitly assumes that the macroeconomy is unstable without imposition of a policy. Hence selection of a "stabilization policy" can be viewed as selection of a policy to bifurcate the system from an unstable to a stable operating regime. The literature on dynamics of high dimensional systems suggests that successful bifurcation selection is challenging. As an experiment to investigate this point of view, we use the continuous time UK dynamic macroeconomic model, since it is a second order differential equation system that has properties that are well suited to the purpose. The model's published point estimates are in the unstable region, and the model's Keynesian frictions provide the opportunity for Pareto-improving stabilization policy intervention. Under strongly simplifying assumptions intended to produce the least difficult bifurcation selection, we explore the problem of selecting a successful bifurcation policy to stabilize the system. Under assumptions designed to be most favorable to Keynesian stabilization policy, we find that policies that would produce successful bifurcation to stability are very complicated. We also find that less complicated policies based upon reasonable economic intuition can be counterproductive, since such policies can contract the size of the stable subset of the parameter space.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2012|
|Date of revision:||Sep 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (785) 864-3501
Fax: (785) 864-5270
Web page: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1997.
"Comparing Four Models of Aggregate Fluctuations due to Self-Fulfilling Expectations,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 96-147, January.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1995. "Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Barnett William A. & He Yijun, 1999. "Stability Analysis of Continuous-Time Macroeconometric Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, January.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985.
"On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles,"
Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
- Engelbert Dockner & Gustav Feichtinger, 1991. "On the optimality of limit cycles in dynamic economic systems," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 31-50, February.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998.
"Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
- GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel, 1997. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1997088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wandasiewicz, S., 1994. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a second-order continuous time macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 731-761.
- Barnett, William A. & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1997.
"A single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and chaos,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 157-192.
- William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 1996. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Econometrics 9602005, EconWPA, revised 20 Sep 1996.
- William Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 2012. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition Among Tests For Nonlinearity And Chaos," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201219, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
- Aditya Goenka & David Kelly & Stephen Spear, .
"Endogenous Strategic Business Cycles,"
GSIA Working Papers
2, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wymer, C. R., 1992. "Gaussian estimation of a second order continuous time macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 313-351, October.
- Nieuwenhuis, Herman J. & Schoonbeek, Lambert, 1997. "Stability and the structure of continuous-time economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 311-340, July.
- Herbert E. Scarf, 1959. "Some Examples of Global Instability of the Competitive Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 79, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1979. "The hopf bifurcation and the existence and stability of closed orbits in multisector models of optimal economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 421-444, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201228. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jianbo Zhang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.