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Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model

  • Ana Aizcorbe

    (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

  • Samuel Kortum

    (University of Minnesota)

In this paper we develop a vintage model to gain a better understanding of the semiconductor industry and its role in recent U.S. productivity gains. Unlike previous work, in our model the observed price declines of individual chips are driven by the introduction of better vintages rather than by learning economies. Dominated chips, nonetheless, continue to be produced, for a time, due to sunk investments in chip-specific production equipment. The model lends partial support to Jorgenson's hypothesis that an exogenous increase in Moore's Law could have generated the more rapid price declines, and faster productivity growth, seen after 1995. Copyright The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", 2005 .

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0412008.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 15 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0412008
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 43
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
  2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the US Growth Resurgence," Chapters, in: The New Economy and Beyond, chapter 2 Edward Elgar.
  3. Siebert, Ralph, 2003. "Learning by Doing and Multiproduction Effects Over the Life Cycle: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 3734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Nile W. Hatch & David C. Mowery, 1998. "Process Innovation and Learning by Doing in Semiconductor Manufacturing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-1), pages 1461-1477, November.
  5. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2003. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 477-503, July.
  6. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1988. "Entry, Exit, And Diffusion With Learning By Doing," Working Papers 88-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  7. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December.
  8. Moene, Karl Ove & Wallerstein, Michael, 1997. "Pay Inequality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 403-30, July.
  9. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U. S. Economy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1911, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  10. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
  11. Ana Aizcorbe, 2002. "Why are semiconductor prices falling so fast? Industry estimates and implications for productivity measurement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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