IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Moore's Law, Competition and Intel's Productivity in the 1990s

Listed author(s):
  • Ana Aizcorbe

    (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

In the mid-1990s, a pickup in measured productivity growth for the semiconductor industry coincided with an economy-wide acceleration in labor productivity growth. The pickup in semiconductor markets reflected an increase in the growth of real output that was generated by what Dale Jorgenson (2001) called an “inflection point” in the price indexes for the semiconductor industry. Jorgenson hypothesized that the inflection point reflected increases in the rate of product innovation made possible by an increase in Moore’s Law, a stylized description of technology that currently states that the number of electrical components on a chip will double every eighteen months. Within semiconductors, microprocessors (MPUs) produced by Intel—the world’s largest producer of the chips that serve as a computer’s central processing unit—were the primary contributor to the inflection point in the semiconductor index. The inflection point in the price index coincided with two changes in the price contours for Intel’s chips. First, price contours for Intel’s chips became steeper around 1995. Because most price index formulae boil down to functions of weighted averages of price change, steeper price contours translate directly into more rapidly declining price indexes. At the same time, the product lifecycle for MPUs—the length of time chips are sold in the market—shortened and Intel began to introduce chips more frequently. What caused these changes in pricing and product cycles? This paper provides a simple framework to help gain some intuition on these issues. The model provides a set of conditions under which an increase in Moore’s Law is consistent with both of these stylized facts. In the model, an increase in Moore’s Law raises the quality of future chips relative to today’s chips. If consumers view these chips as substitutes, then increases in the quality of tomorrow’s chips push down the prices for today’s chips and can, under certain conditions, generate an inflection point in the price index. However, the framework also suggests that changes in the attributes of contemporaneous substitutes can have the same effects. Thus, the model suggests that increases in the quality of competitor’s chips can generate an inflection point through the same channel. This is an important possibility to consider because Intel faced increasing competition from AMD beginning in the mid-1990s, about when the inflection point occurred.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0502003.

in new window

Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 08 Feb 2005
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0502003
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 12. This paper is a shortened and revised version of “Product Innovation, Product Introductions and Productivity at Intel in the 1990s,” which was presented at NBER Productivity Workshop, March, 2004.
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

in new window

  1. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
  2. Ana M. Aizcorbe, 2002. "Why are semiconductor prices falling so fast? Industry estimates and implications for productivity measurement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U. S. Economy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1911, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0502003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.