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Beyond implied volatility: extracting information from option prices

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  • Rama CONT

    (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)

Abstract

After a brief review of option pricing theory, we introduce various methods proposed for extracting the statistical information implicit in options prices. Among the methods discussed are: lognormal Edgeworth expansions, cumulant expansions, Hermite polynomial expansions, nonparametric kernel estimation of state price densities and maximum entropy methods. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of each method, the interpretation of their results in economic terms, their theoretical consequences and their relevance for applications. The style is introductory and self-contained.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama CONT, 1998. "Beyond implied volatility: extracting information from option prices," Finance 9804002, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9804002
    Note: Type of Document - LaTex; prepared on UNIX Sparc TeX; to print on PostScript; pages: 26 ; figures: included. Lecture given at Eotvos university, Budapest in July 1997. Also available from:
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corrado, Charles J & Su, Tie, 1996. "Skewness and Kurtosis in S&P 500 Index Returns Implied by Option Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 175-192, Summer.
    2. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, April.
    3. Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March.
    4. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Giulia Iori & Didier Sornette, 1995. "Real-world options: smile and residual risk," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500039, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    5. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    6. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics,in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339 Elsevier.
    7. Figlewski, Stephen, 1989. " Options Arbitrage in Imperfect Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1289-1311, December.
    8. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
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    10. Robert JARROW & Andrew RUDD, 2008. "Approximate Option Valuation For Arbitrary Stochastic Processes," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 1, pages 9-31 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Stutzer, Michael, 1996. " A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1633-1652, December.
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    1. repec:eee:apmaco:v:258:y:2015:i:c:p:372-387 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Vladimir Zdorovenin & Jacques Pézier, 2011. "Does Information Content of Option Prices Add Value for Asset Allocation?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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