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Beyond implied volatility: extracting information from option prices

  • Rama CONT

    (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)

Registered author(s):

    After a brief review of option pricing theory, we introduce various methods proposed for extracting the statistical information implicit in options prices. Among the methods discussed are: lognormal Edgeworth expansions, cumulant expansions, Hermite polynomial expansions, nonparametric kernel estimation of state price densities and maximum entropy methods. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of each method, the interpretation of their results in economic terms, their theoretical consequences and their relevance for applications. The style is introductory and self-contained.

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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9804002.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: 08 Apr 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9804002
    Note: Type of Document - LaTex; prepared on UNIX Sparc TeX; to print on PostScript; pages: 26 ; figures: included. Lecture given at Eotvos university, Budapest in July 1997. Also available from:
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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    1. Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Giulia Iori & Didier Sornette, 1995. "Real-world options: smile and residual risk," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500039, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    4. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
    5. Stutzer, Michael, 1996. " A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1633-52, December.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    7. Jarrow, Robert & Rudd, Andrew, 1982. "Approximate option valuation for arbitrary stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 347-369, November.
    8. Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    9. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    11. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    12. Marc Potters & Rama Cont & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 1996. "Financial markets as adaptative systems," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500037, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    13. Dumas, Bernard J & Fleming, Jeff & Whaley, Robert E, 1996. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," CEPR Discussion Papers 1369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Jens Carsten Jackwerth., 1996. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-265, University of California at Berkeley.
    15. Ernst Eberlein & Jean Jacod, 1997. "On the range of options prices (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 131-140.
    16. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    17. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    18. Figlewski, Stephen, 1989. " Options Arbitrage in Imperfect Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1289-1311, December.
    19. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
    20. Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March.
    21. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    22. Corrado, Charles J & Su, Tie, 1996. "Skewness and Kurtosis in S&P 500 Index Returns Implied by Option Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 175-92, Summer.
    23. Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 91-115, March.
    24. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521429504 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Bernard Dumas & Jeff Fleming & Robert E. Whaley, 1996. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 5500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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