An Application of the Disequilibrium Adjustment Framework to Small Area Forecasting and Impact Analysis
The disequilibrium adjustment frameworks, pioneered by Carlino & Mills (1987) and further extended by Boarnet (1994a), have been widely adopted by various regional and intra-regional studies, 1) determining whether jobs follow people or people follow jobs or the both; 2) examining the determinants of growth or location decisions; and 3) investigating spread versus backwash effects. Beyond these traditional uses of the framework, this chapter presents an idea of using the model for small area population and employment forecasting and impact analysis. An application using data for the Chicago metropolitan area reveals that the framework, capturing spatial population-employment interaction and adjustment processes, can be a powerful small area forecasting and impact analysis tool, when it is combined with a regional economic forecasting method. Particularly, the spatial econometric specification of the model facilitates the integration of horizontal (across spatial units) as well as vertical (over the hierarchy; macro and sub-regional) dimensions to the analysis of change. This study also discusses some theoretical issues and methodological challenges in this type of application. Keywords: Small-areas Forecasting, Spatial Adjustment, Econometric Input-Output Model.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ersa.org
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sergio J. Rey, 2000. "articles: Integrated regional econometric+input-output modeling: Issues and opportunities," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 79(3), pages 271-292.
- Steinnes, Donald N., 1977. "Causality and intraurban location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-79, January.
- Mills Edwin S. & Lubuele Luan' Sende, 1995. "Projecting Growth of Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 344-360, May.
- Kelly D. Edmiston, 2004. "The Net Effects of Large Plant Locations and Expansions on County Employment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 289-320.
- John I. Carruthers & Gordon F. Mulligan, 2008. "A locational analysis of growth and change in American metropolitan areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 155-171, 06.
- Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
- Shanzi Ke & Edward Feser, 2010. "Count on the Growth Pole Strategy for Regional Economic Growth? Spread-Backwash Effects in Greater Central China," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1131-1147.
- David Maddison, 2009. "A Spatio-temporal Model of Farmland Values," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 171-189.
- Boarnet Marlon G., 1994. "The Monocentric Model and Employment Location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 79-97, July.
- G F Mulligan & A C Vias & S M Glavac, 1999. "Initial diagnostics of a regional adjustment model," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(5), pages 855-876, May.
- Boarnet, Marlon G. & Chalermpong, Saksith & Geho, Elizabeth, 2001.
"Specification Issues in Models of Population and Employment Growth,"
University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers
qt5fn0m74n, University of California Transportation Center.
- Marlon G. Boarnet & Saksith Chalermpong & Elizabeth Geho, 2005. "Specification issues in models of population and employment growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(1), pages 21-46, 03.
- West, Guy R. & Jackson, Randall W., 1998. "Input-Output+Econometric and Econometric+Input-Output: Model Differences or Different Models?," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 28(1).
- Steven C. Deller & Tsung-Hsiu (Sue) Tsai & David W. Marcouiller & Donald B.K. English, 2001. "The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life In Rural Economic Growth," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 352-365.
- Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-33, May.
- Bollinger, Christopher R. & Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 1997. "The Impact of Rapid Rail Transit on Economic Development: The Case of Atlanta's MARTA," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 179-204, September.
- G F Mulligan & A C Vias & S M Glavac, 1999. "Initial Diagnostics of a Regional Adjustment Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(5), pages 855-876, May.
- Vermeulen, Wouter & van Ommeren, Jos, 2009. "Does land use planning shape regional economies? A simultaneous analysis of housing supply, internal migration and local employment growth in the Netherlands," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 294-310, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.