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Initial Diagnostics of a Regional Adjustment Model

Author

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  • G F Mulligan

    (Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson AZ 85721, USA)

  • A C Vias

    (Department of Geography, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley CO 80639, USA)

  • S M Glavac

    (Sunshine Coast University College, Maroochydore, Queensland, Australia 4558)

Abstract

Adjustment models are used increasingly to analyze population and employment changes in regional economies. However, questions remain about the most appropriate geographic scales and time lags for these models. In this paper we estimate a well-known adjustment model for a recent 25-year period in the USA. Regional population and employment changes (levels and densities) are examined at three scales (states, Bureau of Economic Analysis regions, counties) using various time lags (one to ten years). Two-stage least squares regression estimates, based on Regional Economic Information System data running between 1969 and 1994, are generated and discussed. Analysis is restricted to the core relationships between population and employment; the roles of other exogenous variables, normally included in adjustment models, are not considered. Instead, concern is focused on issues such as stability and directional causality of the interacting population—employment systems. Some brief suggestions regarding future research conclude the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • G F Mulligan & A C Vias & S M Glavac, 1999. "Initial Diagnostics of a Regional Adjustment Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(5), pages 855-876, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:31:y:1999:i:5:p:855-876
    DOI: 10.1068/a310855
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marlon G. Boarnet & Saksith Chalermpong & Elizabeth Geho, 2005. "Specification issues in models of population and employment growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(1), pages 21-46, March.
    2. Gerke J. Hoogstra & Jouke van Dijk & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2017. "Do jobs follow people or people follow jobs? A meta-analysis of Carlino–Mills studies," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 357-378, October.
    3. Han, Wenjing & Zhang, Xiaoling & Zheng, Xian, 2020. "Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Zhou, Bin (Brenda) & Kockelman, Kara M., 2009. "Predicting the distribution of households and employment: a seemingly unrelated regression model with two spatial processes," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 369-376.
    5. Dayton M. Lambert, 2020. "Dynamic panel estimation of a regional adjustment model with spatial-temporal robust covariance," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 245-265, December.
    6. Jason P. Brown & Dayton M. Lambert & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2013. "The Birth, Death, and Persistence of Firms: Creative Destruction and the Spatial Distribution of U.S. Manufacturing Establishments, 2000–2006," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 89(3), pages 203-226, July.
    7. Bumsoo Lee & Peter Gordon, 2007. "Urban Spatial Structure and Economic Growth in US Metropolitan Areas," Working Paper 8564, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    8. Simon Choi & Changkeun Park & JiYoung Park, 2014. "A spatio-temporal analysis of population and employment growth for Southern California," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), pages 19-40, January.
    9. Jae Hong Kim & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2012. "An Application of the Disequilibrium Adjustment Framework to Small Area Forecasting and Impact Analysis," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Esteban Fernández Vázquez & Fernando Rubiera Morollón (ed.), Defining the Spatial Scale in Modern Regional Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 139-155, Springer.
    10. Luisa Alamá-Sabater & Miguel Ángel Márquez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina & Júlia Cravo, 2022. "Are semi-urban spillovers the answer to left-behind places in rural Europe? The case of the Portuguese municipalities," Working Papers 2022/14, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    11. Gordon Mulligan & Alexander Vias, 2006. "Growth and change in U.S. micropolitan areas," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(2), pages 203-228, June.
    12. Jens Abildtrup & Virginie Piguet & Bertrand Schmitt, 2011. "The impact of agro-food industry on employment and population changes: The case of Denmark and France'," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1622, European Regional Science Association.
    13. John I. CARRUTHERS & Michael K. HOLLAR & Gordon F. MULLIGAN, 2008. "Growth And Convergence In The Space Economy : Evidence From The United States," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 35-60.
    14. Jae Kim & Geoffrey Hewings, 2012. "Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 485-513, October.
    15. Tervo, Hannu, 2016. "Do People Follow Jobs or Do Jobs Follow People? The Case of Finland in an International Context," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 46(1).
    16. Sumei Zhang & Jean‐Michel Guldmann, 2010. "Accessibility, Diversity, Environmental Quality and the Dynamics of Intra‐Urban Population and Employment Location," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 85-114, March.
    17. Boarnet, Marlon G. & McLaughlin, Ralph B. & Carruthers, John I., 2011. "Does state growth management change the pattern of urban growth? Evidence from Florida," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 236-252, May.
    18. John I. Carruthers & Gordon F. Mulligan, 2008. "A locational analysis of growth and change in American metropolitan areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 155-171, June.
    19. Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41, February.
    20. de Graaff, Thomas & van Oort, Frank G. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2012. "Sectoral heterogeneity, accessibility and population–employment dynamics in Dutch cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 115-127.
    21. Funderburg, Richard G. & Nixon, Hilary & Boarnet, Marlon G. & Ferguson, Gavin, 2010. "New highways and land use change: Results from a quasi-experimental research design," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 76-98, February.

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