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Specification Issues in Models of Population and Employment Growth

  • Boarnet, Marlon G.
  • Chalermpong, Saksith
  • Geho, Elizabeth

Spatial econometric adaptations of population and employment growth models have been used to study the employment impacts of urban rail transit (Bollinger and Ihlanfeldt, 1997), the links between urban and rural development (Henry, Barkley, and Bao, 1997; Schmitt and Henry, 2000), and causality between intra-metropolitan population and employment location (Boarnet, 1994b). Yet the literature has so far given limited attention to two specification issues that are fundamental to the performance of spatial econometric population and employment growth models. First, the weight matrix, which defines how geographic units of observation relate to one another, must be defined a priori, and alternative versions of the weight matrix have rarely been consistently compared. Second, most recent population-employment growth models are lagged adjustment models, yet the estimated lag parameters often imply that the system does not adjust to a long-run equilibrium, violating one of the maintained hypotheses of the lagged adjustment approach. This paper analyzes those three specification issues, and provides insight into both the validity of various econometric practices that have been common in recent literature and the stability of econometric population and employment growth models when typical assumptions and approaches are changed.

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Paper provided by University of California Transportation Center in its series University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers with number qt5fn0m74n.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt5fn0m74n
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  1. GOFFETTE-NAGOT, Florence & SCHMITT, Bertrand, 1997. "Agglomération economies and spatial configuration in rural areas," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 1997-16, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
  2. Bertrand Schmitt & Henry, 2000. "Size and growth of urban centers in French labor market areas : consequences for rural population and employment," Working Papers 156338, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  3. Steinnes, Donald N., 1977. "Causality and intraurban location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-79, January.
  4. Bollinger, Christopher R. & Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 1997. "The Impact of Rapid Rail Transit on Economic Development: The Case of Atlanta's MARTA," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 179-204, September.
  5. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 1989. "Why Do World War II Veterans Earn More Than Nonveterans?," Working Papers 634, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  6. Steven C. Deller & Tsung-Hsiu (Sue) Tsai & David W. Marcouiller & Donald B.K. English, 2001. "The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life In Rural Economic Growth," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 352-365.
  7. Bradford, David F & Kelejian, Harry H, 1973. "An Econometric Model of the Flight to the Suburbs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 566-89, May-June.
  8. Deitz, Richard, 1998. "A Joint Model of Residential and Employment Location in Urban Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 197-215, September.
  9. Robin M. Leichenko, 2001. "Growth and Change in U.S. Cities and Suburbs," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 326-354.
  10. Bernard Fingleton, 2001. "Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 117-147.
  11. Boarnet Marlon G., 1994. "The Monocentric Model and Employment Location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 79-97, July.
  12. Deborah Roberts, 2000. "The Spatial Diffusion of Secondary Impacts: Rural-Urban Spillovers in Grampian, Scotland," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 76(3), pages 395-412.
  13. Christopher H. Wheeler, 2001. "A Note on the Spatial Correlation Structure of County-Level Growth in the U.S," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 433-449.
  14. G F Mulligan & A C Vias & S M Glavac, 1999. "Initial diagnostics of a regional adjustment model," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(5), pages 855-876, May.
  15. Schmitt, Bertrand & Henry, Mark S., 2000. "Size and growth of urban centers in French labor market areas: consequences for rural population and employment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, January.
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