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New Highways, Induced Travel, and Urban Growth Patterns: A "Before and After" Test

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  • Boarnet, Marlon G.
  • Chalermpong, Saksith

Abstract

Several recent studies have demonstrated an association between increases in highway capacity and increases in vehicle miles of travel (VMT). That phenomenon, called induced travel, has increasingly been cited as a basis for rethinking travel demand modeling, land-use/transportation interactions, and the environmental impacts of highway projects. Yet before the policy community can firmly conclude that induced travel is an important phenomenon, one lingering doubt must be addressed. Do new highways really induce additional travel, or are the associations between lane miles and VMT driven by a reverse causal link - namely that new highways are built in anticipation of expected increases in travel demand? The debate remains contentious, in part because the empirical evidence on induced travel is mostly from aggregate data that are aggregated over broad geographic areas, such as counties or states is difficult, and focusing on individual projects can help clarify matters. In this light, we examine three highways in a rapidly growing urban area to pose the following question: Do new highways influence urban development in ways that suggest that they induce new automobile traffic, or are urban growth patterns somewhat impervious to the completion of new highways?

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  • Boarnet, Marlon G. & Chalermpong, Saksith, 2002. "New Highways, Induced Travel, and Urban Growth Patterns: A "Before and After" Test," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7426232j, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt7426232j
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    1. Boarnet, Marlon G., 1995. "Highways and Intrametropolitan Employment Growth," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7cd0157q, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Case, Karl E. & Mayer, Christopher J., 1996. "Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 387-407, June.
    3. Marlon G. Boarnet & Saksith Chalermpong & Elizabeth Geho, 2005. "Specification issues in models of population and employment growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(1), pages 21-46, March.
    4. Marlon G. Boarnet, 1994. "An Empirical Model Of Intrametropolitan Population And Employment Growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 135-152, April.
    5. Boarnet, Marlon G. & Haughwout, Andrew F., 2000. "Do Highways Matter? Evidence and Policy Implications of Highways' Influence on Metropolitan Development," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5rn9w6bz, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Bradford, David F & Kelejian, Harry H, 1973. "An Econometric Model of the Flight to the Suburbs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 566-589, May-June.
    7. Bollinger, Christopher R. & Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 1997. "The Impact of Rapid Rail Transit on Economic Development: The Case of Atlanta's MARTA," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 179-204, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miller, John S. & Hoel, Lester A. & Ellington, David B., 2009. "Can highway investment policies influence regional growth?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 165-176, September.
    2. Bishal Bhakta Kasu & Guangqing Chi, 2018. "The Evolving and Complementary Impacts of Transportation Infrastructures on Population and Employment Change in the United States, 1970–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 1003-1029, December.

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