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Employment, Education and Occupation Structures: A Framework for Forecasting

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  • Robert Stehrer

    () (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

This paper introduces a model for forecasting changes in employment levels and structures by sectors, occupational categories and educational attainment levels which is then applied to the new EU member states (NMS) and Bulgaria and Romania. The model is based on the following ideas As these countries face lower productivity levels as compared to the EU-15, the scope for technical change and catching up is quite large. Thus, if these countries converge to the EU-15 productivity levels at given trajectories, real income levels are also changing, which implies changes in demand and thus output structures by Engel curve effects. The latter are modelled as convergence to the EU-15 output structures. These factors, i.e. changes in productivity levels and output structures, in turn imply changes in the level and structure of employment. For making the forecasts we estimated the speed of convergence in productivity levels by sectors and the sectoral output shares econometrically from a larger country sample (including mainly EU countries). From these estimates and the initial levels, forecasts of convergence patterns for productivity levels and output shares are calculated, which are presented for the period up to 2012. A further decomposition with respect to occupational categories and educational attainment levels allows to forecast labour demand with respect to these groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Stehrer, 2005. "Employment, Education and Occupation Structures: A Framework for Forecasting," wiiw Research Reports 315, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  • Handle: RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:315
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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/employment-education-and-occupation-structures-a-framework-for-forecasting-dlp-325.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael A. Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2007. "Income Distribution, Technical Change And The Dynamics Of International Economic Integration," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 45-73, February.
    2. Michael Landesmann & Hermine Vidovic & Terry Ward, 2004. "Economic Restructuring and Labour Market Developments in the New EU Member States," wiiw Research Reports 312, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & Charles I. Jones, 2001. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1168-1169, September.
    4. Michael Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2002. "Technical Change, Effective Demand and Economic Growth," wiiw Working Papers 22, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Anders Sorensen, 2001. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1160-1167, September.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-1238, December.
    7. Gouyette, Claudine & Perelman, Sergio, 1997. "Productivity convergence in OECD service industries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 279-295, August.
    8. Michael A. Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2004. "Technology Diffusion, International Competition and Effective Demand," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 105(1), pages 23-46.
    9. Robert Stehrer, 2002. "Dynamics of Trade Integration and Technological Convergence," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 219-244.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Havlik & Sebastian Leitner & Robert Stehrer, 2012. "Growth Resurgence, Productivity Catching-up and Labour Demand in Central and Eastern European Countries," Chapters,in: Industrial Productivity in Europe, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Andreas Breitenfellner & Antje Hildebrandt, 2006. "High Employment with Low Productivity? The Service Sector as a Determinant of Economic Development," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 110-135.
    3. Sultan, Muyed, 2008. "The Tertiary Sector Is Going to Dominate the World Economy; Should We Worry?," MPRA Paper 14681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Peter Havlik & Sebastian Leitner & Robert Stehrer, 2008. "Growth Resurgence, Productivity Catching-up and Labour Demand in CEECs," wiiw Statistical Reports 3, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity convergence; labour demand; employment patterns; occupations; skill demand; supply and demand mismatches;

    JEL classification:

    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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