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Economic Crises and Returns to University Education in Middle-Income Countries : Stylized Facts and COVID-19 Projections

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  • Fasih,Tazeen
  • Patrinos,Harry Anthony
  • Shafiq,M. Najeeb

Abstract

This paper documents stylized facts on rates of returns to education during economic crises. It shows from three middle-income countries -- Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa -- that the rate of return to university education (versus secondary education) has increased during economic crises. Based on this stylized fact, the paper projects that the returns for university graduates may increase by at least one-quarter to one-third during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Fasih,Tazeen & Patrinos,Harry Anthony & Shafiq,M. Najeeb, 2020. "Economic Crises and Returns to University Education in Middle-Income Countries : Stylized Facts and COVID-19 Projections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9472, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9472
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harry Anthony Patrinos & Chris Sakellariou, 2006. "Economic volatility and returns to education in Venezuela: 1992-2002," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 1991-2005.
    2. Randall H. King, 1980. "Some Further Evidence on the Rate of Return to Schooling and the Business Cycle," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 15(2), pages 264-272.
    3. Ariel Fiszbein & Paula Inés Giovagnoli & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2007. "Estimating the Returns to Education in Argentina Using Quantile Regression Analysis: 1992-2002," Económica, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(1-2), pages 53-72, January-D.
    4. Thomas J. Kniesner & Arthur H. Padilla & Solomon W. Polachek, 1978. "The Rate of Return to Schooling and the Business Cycle," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 13(2), pages 264-277.
    5. Montenegro, Claudio E. & Patrinos, Harry Anthony, 2014. "Comparable estimates of returns to schooling around the world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7020, The World Bank.
    6. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    7. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    8. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    9. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2018. "Returns to investment in education: a decennial review of the global literature," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 445-458, September.
    10. Gonzalez, Naihobe & Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo, 2011. "Are returns to education on the decline in Venezuela and does Mission Sucre have a role to play?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1348-1369.
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    Keywords

    Educational Sciences; Economic Growth; Industrial Economics; Economic Theory&Research; Labor Markets; Secondary Education;
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