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Lost Wages: The COVID-19 Cost of School Closures

Author

Listed:
  • Psacharopoulos, George

    (Georgetown University)

  • Collis, Victoria

    (The EdTech Hub)

  • Patrinos, Harry Anthony

    (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville)

  • Vegas, Emiliana

    (Center for Universal Education, Brookings)

Abstract

Social distancing requirements associated with COVID-19 have led to school closures. In April, 192 countries had closed all schools and universities, affecting more than 90 percent of the world's learners: over 1.5 billion children and young people. Closures are expected to reduce schooling and lead to future losses in earnings. Starting from the assumption that every additional year of schooling translates to 8 percent in future earnings, this paper estimates and confirms the loss in marginal future earnings on the basis of a four-month shutdown. We also estimated the losses by level of education. The findings show that the school closures reduce future earnings. It is also likely that students from low-income countries will be affected most, where the earning losses will be devastating. These estimates are conservative, assuming closures end after four months, with schools re-opening in the new academic year, and that school quality will not suffer.

Suggested Citation

  • Psacharopoulos, George & Collis, Victoria & Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Vegas, Emiliana, 2020. "Lost Wages: The COVID-19 Cost of School Closures," IZA Discussion Papers 13641, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13641
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlana, Michela & La Ferrara, Eliana, 2021. "Apart but Connected: Online Tutoring and Student Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 14094, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Mariano Tommasi, 2021. "Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 571-598, September.
    3. Haelermans, Carla & Jacobs, Madelon & van Vugt, Lynn & Aarts, Bas & Abbink, Henry & Smeets, Chayenne & van der Velden, Rolf & van Wetten, Sanne, 2021. "A full year COVID-19 crisis with interrupted learning and two school closures: The effects on learning growth and inequality in primary education," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    4. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Inequalities in the times of a pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 5-41.
    5. Silke Anger & Malte Sandner & Alexander M. Danzer & Axel Plünnecke & Olaf Köller & Enzo Weber & Samuel Mühlemann & Harald Pfeifer & Bernhard Wittek, 2020. "Schulschließungen, fehlende Ausbildungsplätze, keine Jobs: Generation ohne Zukunft?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(09), pages 03-24, September.
    6. Breuer, Anita & Leininger, Julia & Malerba, Daniele & Tosun, Jale, 2023. "Integrated policymaking: Institutional designs for implementing the sustainable development goals (SDGs)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Ahn, Kunwon & Lee, Jun Yeong & Winters, John V., 2020. "Employment Opportunities and High School Completion during the COVID-19 Recession," ISU General Staff Papers 202010190700001114, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Rosa Caiazza & Phillip Phan & Erik Lehmann & Henry Etzkowitz, 2021. "An absorptive capacity-based systems view of Covid-19 in the small business economy," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 1419-1439, September.
    9. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Guido Neidhöfer & Mariano Tommasi, 2020. "Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America," Working Papers 2013, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    10. Mónika Harangi-Rákos & Christa Pfau & Éva Bácsné Bába & Bence András Bács & Péter Miklós Kőmíves, 2022. "Lockdowns and Physical Activities: Sports in the Time of COVID," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-22, February.
    11. Engzell, Per & Frey, Arun & Verhagen, Mark D., 2020. "Learning Inequality During the Covid-19 Pandemic," SocArXiv ve4z7, Center for Open Science.
    12. Sung Wook Kim & Caterina Alacevich & Catia Nicodemo & Raphael Wittenberg & Simon Lusignan & Stavros Petrou, 2025. "The Association between COVID-19 Status and Economic Costs in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from a UK Symptom Surveillance Digital Survey," PharmacoEconomics - Open, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 231-245, March.
    13. Buffie, Edward F. & Adam, Christopher & Zanna, Luis-Felipe & Kpodar, Kangni, 2023. "Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. G.T. Ijaiya & R, A. Bello & M.A. Ijaya & T.A. Ijaiya, 2020. "Corona Virus (Covid-19), Lockdown And Well-Being: Views And Counter Views In The Streets Of Tanke-Bubu, Ilorin, Nigeria," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 7(3), pages 24-40.
    15. Amodio, Emanuele & Battisti, Michele & Kourtellos, Andros & Maggio, Giuseppe & Maida, Carmelo Massimo, 2022. "Schools opening and Covid-19 diffusion: Evidence from geolocalized microdata," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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