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Poverty impacts of the volume-based special safeguard mechanism

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  • Ivanic, Maros
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

The volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmers and became the proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for these farmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farm output is depressed and many poor farmers in developing countries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31 countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line with the proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise the world poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. The adverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when the quantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in other years, because lower farm output levels reduce or reverse the benefits to poor farm households from higher prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2014. "Poverty impacts of the volume-based special safeguard mechanism," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7006, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J. & Leister, Amanda M., 2010. "Potential Implications of a Special Safeguard Mechanism in the WTO: the Case of Wheat," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61000, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
    3. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    4. Grant, Jason H. & Meilke, Karl D., 2009. "Triggers, Remedies, and Tariff Cuts: Assessing the Impact of a Special Safeguard Mechanism for Developing Countries," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Ravallion, Martin, 1990. "Rural Welfare Effects of Food Price Changes under Induced Wage Responses: Theory and Evidence for Bangladesh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 574-585, July.
    6. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2014. "Short- and long-run impacts of food price changes on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7011, The World Bank.
    7. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    8. Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 1-37, Supplemen.
    9. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    10. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    11. Thomas W. Hertel & Will Martin & Amanda M. Leister, 2010. "Potential Implications of a Special Safeguard Mechanism in the World Trade Organization: the Case of Wheat," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(2), pages 330-359, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Countryman, Amanda M. & Narayanan, Badri G., 2017. "Price volatility, tariff structure and the special safeguard mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 399-408.
    2. Donald MacLaren, 2016. "The Contingent Tariff of the Special Safeguard Mechanism: What Happens When Markets are Imperfectly Competitive?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 62-83, February.
    3. Countryman, Amanda & Ufer, Danielle, 2016. "Potential Poverty Effects of the Special Safeguard Mechanism: the Case of Wheat," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236023, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Popp, J. & Olah, J. & Peto, K., 2018. "Short Food Suply Chains in Europe: differences between the EU-15 and EU-13," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277136, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    Keywords

    Rural Poverty Reduction; Markets and Market Access; Regional Economic Development; Emerging Markets;

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