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Potential Implications of a Special Safeguard Mechanism in the World Trade Organization: the Case of Wheat

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  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Will Martin
  • Amanda M. Leister

Abstract

The special safeguard mechanism--both quantity- and price-based--was key in the July 2008 failure to reach agreement in the World Trade Organization negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda. A stochastic simulation model of the world wheat market is used to investigate the effects of the special safeguard mechanism. As expected, the quantity-based safeguard is found to reduce imports, raise domestic prices, and boost mean domestic production in the countries that implement it. However, rather than insulating developing countries in those regions from price volatility, the quantity-based safeguard increases domestic price volatility, largely by restricting imports when domestic output is low and prices are high. The quantity-based safeguard shrinks average wheat imports nearly 50 percent in some regions, and global wheat trade falls by 4.7 percent. The price-based safeguard discriminates against lower price exporters and contributes to producer price instability. Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas W. Hertel & Will Martin & Amanda M. Leister, 2010. "Potential Implications of a Special Safeguard Mechanism in the World Trade Organization: the Case of Wheat," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(2), pages 330-359, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:24:y:2010:i:2:p:330-359
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhq010
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
    2. Kym Anderson, 2013. "Agricultural price distortions: trends and volatility, past, and prospective," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 163-171, November.
    3. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2014. "Poverty impacts of the volume-based special safeguard mechanism," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 607-621, October.
    4. Karapinar, Baris & Tanaka, Tetsuji, 2013. "How to Improve World Food Supply Stability Under Future Uncertainty: Potential Role of WTO Regulation on Export Restrictions in Rice," 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia 160387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Martin, Will, 2017. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," ADBI Working Papers 664, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. David Laborde & Will Martin, 2012. "Agricultural Trade: What Matters in the Doha Round?," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 265-283, August.
    7. Kym Anderson, 2012. "Policy Responses to Changing Perceptions of the Role of Agriculture in Development," Departmental Working Papers 2012-11, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    8. Kym Anderson & Signe Nelgen, 2012. "Agricultural trade distortions during the global financial crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 235-260, SUMMER.
    9. Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2012. "Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 36-48.
    10. Peyton M Ferrier & Amanda M Leister, 2011. "Trigger Points of the Special Safeguard Mechanism," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3211-3220.
    11. Donald MacLaren, 2014. "The Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) and Tariffs: Price Behaviour with Imperfectly Competitive Market Intermediaries," CESifo Working Paper Series 4585, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Thennakoon, Jayanthi & Anderson, Kym, 2015. "Could the proposed WTO Special Safeguard Mechanism protect farmers from low international prices?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-113.
    13. Artavia, Marco & Grethe, Harald & Zimmermann, Georg, 2015. "Stochastic market modeling with Gaussian Quadratures: Do rotations of Stroud's octahedron matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-168.

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