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Global impacts of Doha trade reform scenarios on poverty

  • Anderson, Kym
  • Martin, Will
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, they estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3735.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3735
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  1. Andrew B. Bernard, 2004. "Exporting and Productivity in the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 343-357, Autumn.
  2. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2004. "A Consistent, Ad-Valorem Equivalent Measure of Applied Protection Across the World: The MAcMap-HS6 Database," Working Papers 2004-22, CEPII research center.
  3. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09.
  4. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Trade, Innovation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 86-91, May.
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  6. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  7. Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2005. "Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts," Working Papers 2005-15, CEPII research center.
  8. Sjoholm, Fredrik, 1999. "Exports, Imports and Productivity: Results from Indonesian Establishment Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 705-715, April.
  9. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander, 1995. "North-South R&D Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 1133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession : modeling"real"households and endogenous productivity effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3473, The World Bank.
  11. Richard Harris, 1983. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," Working Papers 524, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Sébastien Dessus & Kiichiro Fukasaku & Raed Safadi, 2001. "Multilateral Tariff Liberalisation and the Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 18, OECD Publishing.
  13. Datt, Gaurav, 1998. "Computational tools for poverty measurement and analysis," FCND discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  14. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2171, The World Bank.
  15. Francois, Joseph, 1998. "Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 317, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  16. Itakura, Ken & Hertel, Thomas & Jeff Reimer, 2003. "The Contribution of Productivity Linkages to the General Equilibrium Analysis of Free Trade Agreements," GTAP Working Papers 1193, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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