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Global impacts of Doha trade reform scenarios on poverty

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Martin, Will
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Abstract

The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, they estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Global impacts of Doha trade reform scenarios on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3735, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3735
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2005. "Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts," Working Papers 2005-15, CEPII research center.
    2. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889.
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    8. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession : modeling"real"households and endogenous productivity effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3473, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nadia Belhaj Hassine & Veronique Robichaud & Bernard Decaluwé, 2010. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization, Productivity Gain and Poverty Alleviation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 519, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Jan 2010.
    2. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2011. "Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 95-108, March.
    3. d'Artis Kancs, 2010. "Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 270-288.
    4. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Would Multilateral Trade Reform Benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(4), pages 626-670, December.
    5. Timothy A. Wise, 2009. "The Limited Promise of Agricultural Trade Liberalization," Trade Working Papers 22787, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889, April.
    7. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2009. "The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 52786, World Bank.
    8. Dilip Das, 2006. "Lean Hong Kong Harvest and the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 363-378.
    9. Nagesh Kumar & Kevin P. Gallagher, 2007. "Relevance of ‘Policy Space’ for Development : Implications for Multilateral Trade Negotiations," Trade Working Papers 22111, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Frank Ackerman, "undated". "05-01 "The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections"," GDAE Working Papers 05-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    11. Bostan, Ionel & Grosu, Veronica, 2011. "General Equilibrium Dynamic Models and the Doha Round Impact on Underdeveloped Economies," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 159-174, March.
    12. Blasco, Lorea Barron & Devadoss, Stephen & Stodick, Leroy, 2006. "The Doha Round Declaration on Cotton: A Catalyst for Poverty Reduction in Africa?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21161, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Mehdi Abbas, 2011. "Mondialisation et développement. Quelle soutenabilité au régime de l'organisation mondiale du commerce ?," Post-Print halshs-00602996, HAL.
    14. Kenneth Reinert, 2007. "The European Union, the Doha Round, and Asia," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 317-330, September.
    15. Hertel, Thomas W. & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Poverty impacts of a WTO agreement : synthesis and overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3757, The World Bank.

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