Tracing Pandemic Impacts in the Absence of Regular Survey Data: What Have We Learned from the World Bank’s High-Frequency Phone Surveys?

The World Bank’s High-Frequency Phone Surveys were deployed to support the monitoring of household welfare during the COVID-19 pandemic, when most of the regular household survey data collection was suspended. This paper reviews the analytical insights gained from the High-Frequency Phone Survey data, including uneven dynamics of household welfare during the pandemic across and within countries, as well as novel applications to simulate estimates of poverty and intergenerational mobility following the pandemic. The paper further derives lessons from the data collection experience. First, phone surveys, while inexpensive and quick, require reliable sampling frames. The predominant sampling strategies—previous household survey and random digit dialing—each have pros and cons in terms of representativeness, non-response, and post-survey adjustments. Second, on questionnaire design, country customization needs to be carefully balanced against standardization when cross-country comparisons are likely to be important. Finally, baseline metrics are critical for crisis monitoring; this requires more frequent welfare monitoring and better alignment of questions in phone surveys and existing data sources. While phone surveys can be a reliable toolkit for researchers and governments, more research is needed on key questions related to the survey mode effect, and the implications of different sampling frames and questionnaire design.