IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upd/utmpwp/002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Demand for Money at the Zero Interest Rate Bound

Author

Listed:
  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Economics,University of Tokyo)

  • Tomoyoshi Yabu

    (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University)

Abstract

This paper estimates a money demand function using US data from 1980 onward, including the period of near-zero interest rates following the global financial crisis. We conduct cointegration tests to show that the substantial increase in the money-income ratio during the period of near-zero interest rates is captured well by the money demand function in log-log form, but not by that in semi-log form. Our result is the opposite of the result obtained by Ireland (2009), who, using data up until 2006, found that the semi-log specification performs better. The difference in the result from Ireland (2009) mainly stems from the difference in the observation period employed: our observation period contains 24 quarters with interest rates below 1 percent, while Ireland’s (2009) observation period contains only three quarters. We also compute the welfare cost of inflation based on the estimated money demand function to find that it is very small: the welfare cost of 2 percent inflation is only 0.04 percent of national income, which is of a similar magnitude as the estimate obtained by Ireland (2009) but much smaller than the estimate by Lucas (2000).

Suggested Citation

  • Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2018. "The Demand for Money at the Zero Interest Rate Bound," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 002, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:upd:utmpwp:002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.centralbank.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/cb-wp002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
    4. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    5. Ball, Laurence, 2001. "Another look at long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-44, February.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2017. "Are Negative Nominal Interest Rates Expansionary?," NBER Working Papers 24039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Matteo Mogliani & Giovanni Urga, 2018. "On the Instability of Long‐Run Money Demand and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1645-1660, October.
    10. Allan H. Meltzer, 1963. "The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 219-219.
    11. Rubens Penha Cysne, 2009. "Bailey's Measure of the Welfare Costs of Inflation as a General-Equilibrium Measure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 451-459, March.
    12. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-674, November.
    13. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343.
    14. Dutkowsky, Donald H & Cynamon, Barry Z, 2003. "Sweep Programs: The Fall of M1 and Rebirth of the Medium of Exchange," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 263-279, April.
    15. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    16. Jobst, Clemens & Stix, Helmut, 2017. "Doomed to Disappear? The Surprising Return of Cash Across Time and Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 12327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Alexander L. Wolman, 1997. "Zero inflation and the Friedman rule: a welfare comparison," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 013, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Saito, Makoto & 齊藤, 誠, 2020. "Long-run mild deflation under fiscal unsustainability in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 703, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2021. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 224-242, July.
    4. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 028, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2021. "Japan’s Voluntary Lockdown: Further Evidence Based on Age-Specific Mobile Location Data," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 034, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 013, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Karsten Schweikert, 2020. "Oracle Efficient Estimation of Structural Breaks in Cointegrating Regressions," Papers 2001.07949, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    4. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    5. Karsten Schweikert, 2022. "Oracle Efficient Estimation of Structural Breaks in Cointegrating Regressions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 83-104, January.
    6. Helmut Herwartz & Jordi Sardà & Bernd Theilen, 2016. "Money demand and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1627-1645, June.
    7. Jan Tin, 2010. "Bequest motives and household money demand," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 269-283, July.
    8. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2018. "Deficit, monetization, and economic growth: a case for multiplicity and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 819-853, June.
    9. Calza Alessandro & Zaghini Andrea, 2011. "Welfare Costs of Inflation and the Circulation of U.S. Currency Abroad," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Faugere, Christophe, 2010. "Macrofoundations for A (Near) 2% Inflation Target," MPRA Paper 23491, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2010.
    11. Youngsoo Bae & Robert M. de Jong, 2007. "Money demand function estimation by nonlinear cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 767-793.
    12. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    13. Aleksander Berentsen & Samuel Huber & Alessandro Marchesiani, 2018. "Limited Commitment and the Demand for Money," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 1128-1156, May.
    14. Matteo Mogliani & Giovanni Urga, 2018. "On the Instability of Long‐Run Money Demand and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1645-1660, October.
    15. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    16. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    17. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber, 2013. "Australasian money demand stability: application of structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1011-1025, March.
    18. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    19. Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2007. "New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 188-224, March.
    20. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    money demand function; cointegration; zero lower bound; near-zero interest rates; welfare cost of inflation; log-log form; semi-log form; interest elasticity of money demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upd:utmpwp:002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fetokjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yayoi Hatano (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fetokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.