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New Asian Regionalism: Evidence of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement From Extended Gravity Theory and New Modelling Approach

The emergence of new Asian regionalisms such as ASEAN+3 (China, Korea and Japan) and the proposed ASEAN+5 (ASEAN+3 plus Australia and New Zealand) and other bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral free trade agreements in recent years requires research into these important developments and their underlying fundamental trade-growth causation. The paper extends the gravity theory to time-series data and applies a new flexible modelling approach to construct a simultaneous-equation model of trade and growth for the ASEAN and the East Asia 3. Using data from the World Bank national accounts and CHELEM regional and international trade over the period 1968-2000, the paper then estimates the model by both standard (OLS and 2SLS) and improved estimation methods to provide superior MSE impact estimates. Implications of the findings for ASEAN+3’s economic integration, trade policy and prospects for trade and welfare improvement for this FTA will also be discussed.

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File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012143.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp03-03.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp03-03
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html

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  1. Van Hoa, Tran, 1992. "Modelling output growth : A new approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284, March.
  2. Van Hoa, Tran, 1985. "The inadmissibility of the Stein estimator in normal multiple regression equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-42.
  3. Ullah, Aman & Ullah, Shobha, 1978. "Double k-Class Estimators of Coefficients in Linear Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 705-22, May.
  4. Van Hoa, Tran & Chaturvedi, A., 1988. "The necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform dominance of the two-stage stein estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 351-355.
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  6. Harrison, Ann, 1991. "Openness and growth : a time series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 809, The World Bank.
  7. Van Hoa, Tran, 1986. "The inadmissibility of the 2SLS estimator in linear structural equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 337-341.
  8. Tran Van Hoa, 2003. "Growth of Asian Regional Trade and Income Convergence: Evidence from ASEAN+3 Based on Extended Helpman-Krugman Hypothesis and Flexible Modelling Approach," Economics Working Papers wp03-02, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  9. Tran Van Hoa & Chaturvedi, A., 1999. "Performance of the 2SHI Estimator under the Generalised Pitman Nearness Criterion," Economics Working Papers wp99-4, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  10. Coe, D.T. & Helpman, E., 1993. "International R&D Spillovers," Papers 5-93, Tel Aviv.
  11. Van Hoa, Tran, 1993. "The mixture properties of the 2SHI estimators in linear regression models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 111-115, January.
  12. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer & Teresa Cyrus, 1995. "Trade and growth in East Asian countries: cause and effect?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Harvie, Charles & Lee, Hyun-Hoon, 2002. "New Regionalism in East Asia: How Does It Relate to the East Asian Economic Development Model?," Economics Working Papers wp02-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  15. Elhanan Helpman & David T. Coe, 1993. "International RandD Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 93/84, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  18. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Tran Van Hoa, 2002. "Korea, China and Japan: Their Trade with the World and Its Impact on New Asian Regionalism ASEAN+3," Economics Working Papers wp02-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  20. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  21. Van Hoa, Tran, 1986. "Improved estimators in some linear errors-in-variables models in finite samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 355-358.
  22. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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