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Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: a European case study

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Benjamin

    (Université de Rennes 1, CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France)

  • Ewen Gallic

    (Université de Rennes 1, CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France)

Abstract

The effects of climate change on European agriculture under different alternative scenarios are empirically studied. Empirical results exhibit the effects of seasonal weather variables on both mean yields and the variance of wheat and corn yields. Prices show a positive and significant impact on wheat yields for northern Europe, only after the CAP reform. Prior to this reform, the effect of prices on yields were not statistically different from zero. The empirical models are then used to assess the effect of climate change on yields. Four climate projection scenarios reflecting greenhouse gas concentration trajectories are tested. Mitigate spatio-temporal effects are found. Wheat yields would increase at the European scale under most scenarios, but the gains would decrease with time for regions in the north in the long-run. Results are less optimistic for corn yields. In the short-run, some northern regions would experience gains in yields, but these gains would transform into losses in the long-run. Those losses would even be higher in the south of Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Benjamin & Ewen Gallic, 2017. "Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: a European case study," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2017-16, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  • Handle: RePEc:tut:cremwp:2017-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; Climate change; Crop Yields; Prices; Variance of Yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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