IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting the Malmquist Productivity Index

  • Daskovska, Alexandra
  • Simar, Léopold
  • Van Bellegem, Sébastien

The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) suggests a convenient way of measuring the productivity change of a given unit between two consequent time periods. Until now, only a static approach for analyzing the MPI was available in the literature. However, this hides a potentially valuable information given by the evolution of productivity over time. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic procedure for forecasting the MPI. We compare several approaches and give credit to a method based on the assumption of circularity. Because the MPI is not circular, we present a new decomposition of the MPI, in which the time-varying indices are circular. Based on that decomposition, a new working dynamic forecasting procedure is proposed and illustrated. To construct prediction intervals of the MPI, we extend the bootstrap method in order to take into account potential serial correlation in the data. We illustrate all the new techniques described above by forecasting the productivityt index of 17 OCDE countries, constructed from their GDP, labor and capital stock.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tse-fr.eu/images/doc/wp/etrie/wp_etrie_48_2009.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) in its series TSE Working Papers with number 09-048.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 11 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22150
Contact details of provider: Phone: (+33) 5 61 12 86 23
Web page: http://www.tse-fr.eu/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. SIMAR, Léopold & WILSON, Paul, 1996. "Estimating and bootstrapping malmquist indices," CORE Discussion Papers 1996060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
  3. Van Bellegem, Sebastien & von Sachs, Rainer, 2004. "Forecasting economic time series with unconditional time-varying variance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 611-627.
  4. Léopold Simar & Paul Wilson, 2000. "Statistical Inference in Nonparametric Frontier Models: The State of the Art," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 49-78, January.
  5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521453455 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521355643 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586115 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Simar, L. & Wilson, P.W., 1998. "Productivity Growth in Industrialized Countries," Papers 9810, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
  9. Finn R. Førsund, 2002. "On the circularity of the Malmquist productivity index," ICER Working Papers 29-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  10. Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "Multilateral Comparisons of Output, Input, and Productivity Using Superlative Index Numbers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 73-86, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.