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Forecasting the Portuguese public hospitals performance: An impossible task?

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  • Varela, Miguel

Abstract

This study has two main objectives: first, to evaluate the performance of public hospitals in Portugal and, second, to predict their development Utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI), this study predicts and evaluates the performance of public hospitals in Portugal. From 2013 to 2017, a sample of 28 public hospitals and hospital centers was analyzed. In 2018, projected MPI values were compared to actual values. The data used are those officially available at the time. The objective was also to delimit the time of the present research so that in a future study it will be possible to compare it with the period of the COVID pandemic. In this research, pre-COVID data are worked on and in a future publication, when official data are available for a period of five years post-COVID, we can compare the results obtained. The average DEA score for hospitals has been 0.648, and the score under variable returns to scale is 0.764, indicating a gradual improvement in performance. Over the years, both hospital and scale efficiency have increased. There is seasonality in the overall average MPI, with significant peaks in May and June. The study indicates that technological advancements have a greater impact on the MPI than changes in efficiency. The projected MPI indicates a marginal uptick for the year 2018, although the outcomes lack sufficient reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Varela, Miguel, 2025. "Forecasting the Portuguese public hospitals performance: An impossible task?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:101:y:2025:i:c:s0038012125001387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102289
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    References listed on IDEAS

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