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Does contingent capital induce excessive risk-taking?

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  • Berg, Tobias
  • Kaserer, Christoph

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the effect of the conversion price of CoCo bonds on equity holders' incentives. First, we use an option-pricing context to show that CoCo bonds can magnify equity holders' incentives to increase the riskiness of assets and decrease incentives to raise new equity in a crisis in cases in which conversion transfers wealth from CoCo bond holders to equity holders. Second, we present a clinical study of the CoCo bonds issued so far. We show that i) almost all existing CoCo bonds are designed in a way that implies a wealth transfer from CoCo bond holders to equity holders at conversion and ii) this contractual design is reflected in traded prices of CoCo bonds. In particular, CoCo bonds are short volatility with a magnitude five times greater than that which can be observed for straight bonds. These results are robust and economically significant. We conclude that the CoCo bonds issued so far can create perverse incentives for banks' equity holders.

Suggested Citation

  • Berg, Tobias & Kaserer, Christoph, 2015. "Does contingent capital induce excessive risk-taking?," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 488, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:trf:wpaper:488
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierluigi Bologna & Arianna Miglietta & Anatoli Segura, 2018. "Contagion in the CoCos market? A case study of two stress events," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1201, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Daniël Vullings, 2016. "Contingent convertible bonds with floating coupon payments: fixing the equilibrium problem," DNB Working Papers 517, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Goncharenko, Roman & Ongena, Steven & Rauf, Asad, 2018. "The Agency of CoCos: Why Contingent Convertible Bonds Aren't for Everyone," CEPR Discussion Papers 13344, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Victor Echevarria Icaza, 2017. "Systemic banks, capital composition and CoCo bonds issuance:The effects on bank risk," Working Papers 17-03, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    5. Manuel Ammann & Kristian Blickle & Christian Ehmann, 2017. "Announcement Effects of Contingent Convertible Securities: Evidence from the Global Banking Industry," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), pages 127-152, January.
    6. Stephanie Chan & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2014. "Cocos, Contagion and Systemic Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-110/VI/DSF79, Tinbergen Institute, revised 29 Oct 2014.
    7. repec:eee:ecolet:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:169-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Stefan Avdjiev & Bilyana Bogdanova & Patrick Bolton & Wei Jiang & Anastasia Kartasheva, 2017. "CoCo Issuance and Bank Fragility," NBER Working Papers 23999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:eee:revfin:v:34:y:2017:i:c:p:10-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Martynova, Natalya & Perotti, Enrico, 2018. "Convertible bonds and bank risk-taking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 61-80.
    11. Stephanie Chan & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2016. "Coco Design, Risk Shifting Incentives and Capital Regulation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-007/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Nov 2017.
    12. Chan, Stephanie & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2016. "CoCo Design, Risk Shifting and Financial Fragility," CEPR Discussion Papers 11099, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Goncharenko, Roman & Ongena, Steven & Rauf, Asad, 2017. "The agency of CoCo: Why do banks issue contingent convertible bonds?," CFS Working Paper Series 586, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. repec:wsi:gcrxxx:v:05:y:2015:i:01:n:s2010493615500051 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Yang, Zhaojun & Zhao, Zhiming, 2015. "Valuation and analysis of contingent convertible securities with jump risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 124-135.
    16. Heller, Yuval & Peleg-Lazar, Sharon & Raviv, Alon, 2019. "A closed-form solution to the risk-taking motivation of subordinated debtholders," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 169-173.
    17. Kenjiro Hori & Jorge Martin Ceron, 2016. "Removing Moral Hazard and Agency Costs in Banks: Beyond CoCo Bonds," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1603, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    18. Jaworski, Piotr & Liberadzki, Kamil & Liberadzki, Marcin, 2017. "How does issuing contingent convertible bonds improve bank's solvency? A Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 162-168.
    19. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:71-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:bla:eufman:v:25:y:2019:i:2:p:358-379 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kenjiro Hori & Jorge Martin Cerón, 2017. "Contingent Convertible Bonds: Payoff Structures and Incentive Effects," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1711, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    22. Fatouh, Mahmoud & McMunn, Ayowande, 2019. "Shareholder risk-taking incentives in the presence of contingent capital," Bank of England working papers 775, Bank of England.
    23. George Pennacchi & Alexei Tchistyi, 2018. "Contingent Convertibles with Stock Price Triggers: The Case of Perpetuities," 2018 Meeting Papers 331, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Kenjiro Hori & Jorge Martin Ceron, 2014. "Agency Costs of Bail-in," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1407, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.

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    Keywords

    Contingent capital; banking regulation; risk-taking incentives; asset substitution; debt overhang; credit crunch;

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