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The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Marriage and Divorce

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  • Gustavo J Bobonis

Abstract

A growing number of less-developed countries have introduced conditional cash transfer programs in which funds are targeted to women. Economic models of the family suggest that these transfer programs may lead to marital turnover among program beneficiaries. We use data from the experimental evaluation of the PROGRESA program in Mexico to provide new evidence on the short-run impacts of targeted transfers on couples’ union dissolution and individuals’ new union formation decisions. We find that, although the overall share of women in union does not change as a result of the program, marital turnover increases. Intact families eligible for the transfers experienced a modest (0.32 percentage points) increase in separation rates, with most of the effect concentrated among young and relatively educated women households. In contrast, young single women with low educational attainment levels experienced a substantial increase in new union formation rates. The marital transition patterns are consistent with the workhorse economic model of the marriage market – individuals with the greatest prospects to start new unions and those who may become more attractive in the marriage market are more likely to transition out of existing relationships and form new ones.

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  • Gustavo J Bobonis, 2009. "The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Marriage and Divorce," Working Papers tecipa-359, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-359
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    2. Bergolo, Marcelo & Galván, Estefanía, 2018. "Intra-household Behavioral Responses to Cash Transfer Programs. Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 100-118.
    3. Subarna Banerjee & Gitanjali Sen, 2024. "Persistent effects of a conditional cash transfer: a case of empowering women through Kanyashree in India," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Roberto Castro & Juan S. Morales, 2015. "Conditional Cash Transfers for Women and Spousal Violence: Evidence of the Long-Term Relationship from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 91600, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Cecilia Parada, 2018. "Income cash transfers and intrahousehold decision making," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 18-17, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    6. Senay Sokullu & Christine Valente, 2022. "Individual consumption in collective households: Identification using repeated observations with an application to PROGRESA," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 286-304, March.
    7. Okeke, Edward N. & Abubakar, Isa S., 2020. "Healthcare at the beginning of life and child survival: Evidence from a cash transfer experiment in Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Fitzsimons, Emla & Mesnard, Alice, 2013. "Can conditional cash transfers compensate for a father's absence ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6476, The World Bank.
    9. John Hoddinott & Tseday J. Mekasha, 2020. "Social Protection, Household Size, and Its Determinants: Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 1818-1837, October.
    10. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Melissa González-Brenes & Roberto Castro, 2013. "Public Transfers and Domestic Violence: The Roles of Private Information and Spousal Control," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 179-205, February.
    11. Independent Evaluation Group, 2014. "Social Safety Nets and Gender : Learning from Impact Evaluations and World Bank Projects," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21365.
    12. Balmori de la Miyar, Jose Roberto, 2018. "The effect of conditional cash transfers on reporting violence against women to the police in Mexico," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 73-91.
    13. Erica Field & Rohini Pande & Natalia Rigol & Simone Schaner & Charity Troyer Moore, 2021. "On Her Own Account: How Strengthening Women's Financial Control Impacts Labor Supply and Gender Norms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(7), pages 2342-2375, July.
    14. Cecilia Parada, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Intra-Household Decision-Making in Uruguay," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 757-775, September.
    15. Goodman, Sarena & Isen, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "A day late and a dollar short: Liquidity and household formation among student borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1301-1323.
    16. Ghanem, Dalia & Hirshleifer, Sarojini & Kédagni, Désiré & Ortiz-Becerra, Karen, 2024. "Correcting attrition bias using changes-in-changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    17. Anukriti, S & Dasgupta, Shatanjaya, 2017. "Marriage Markets in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 10556, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. World Bank, 2011. "Work and Family : Latin American and Caribbean Women in Search of a New Balance [Trabajo & familia : mujeres de América Latina y el Caribe en busca de un nuevo equilibrio - Resumen ejecuivo (Vol. 2," World Bank Publications - Reports 12489, The World Bank Group.
    19. de Brauw, Alan & Peterman, Amber, 2011. "Can conditional cash transfers improve maternal health and birth outcomes?: Evidence from El Salvador's Comunidades Solidarias Rurales," IFPRI discussion papers 1080, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Anderson, Siwan & Genicot, Garance, 2015. "Suicide and property rights in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 64-78.
    21. Padilla-Romo, María & Peluffo, Cecilia & Viollaz, Mariana, 2022. "Parents' Effective Time Endowment and Divorce: Evidence from Extended School Days," IZA Discussion Papers 15304, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Bobonis, Gustavo J. & Castro, Roberto & Morales, Juan S., 2015. "Conditional Cash Transfers for Women and Spousal Violence: Evidence of the Long-Term Relationship from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7267, Inter-American Development Bank.
    23. Inés Berniell & Dolores de la Mata & Matilde Pinto Machado, 2020. "The Impact of a Permanent Income Shock on the Situation of Women in the Household: The Case of a Pension Reform in Argentina," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 1295-1343.
    24. Marazyan, Karine, 2022. "Documenting Inter-personal Conflicts in Senegal during the First Quarter the 20th Century using Dispute Registries from native courts," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2209, CEPREMAP.
    25. Laszlo, Sonia & Grantham, Kate & Oskay, Ecem & Zhang, Tingting, 2020. "Grappling with the challenges of measuring women's economic empowerment in intrahousehold settings," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conditional cash transfers; welfare policy; marriage; divorce;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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