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For richer, if not for poorer? Marriage and divorce over the business cycle

  • Jessamyn Schaller

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    Despite anecdotal evidence that recessions affect marriage and divorce rates, researchers do not agree about the direction and magnitude of the relationship. This paper reexamines the effect of business cycles on flows into and out of marriage, finding that increased unemployment rates are associated with reductions in both outcomes. The results are robust to the use of alternative measures of economic conditions, hold for both blacks and whites, and are concentrated among working-age individuals. Lag specifications and impulse response functions suggest that the effect of an unemployment shock on marriage is permanent, while the effect on divorce is temporary. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-012-0413-0
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    Article provided by Springer & European Society for Population Economics in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 1007-1033

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:3:p:1007-1033
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0413-0
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