IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ieb/wpaper/doc2015-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Divorce and the business cycle: a cross-country analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael González-Val

    (Universidad de Zaragoza & IEB)

  • Miriam Marcén

    (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the role of the business cycle in divorce. To do so, we use a panel of 29 European countries covering the period from 1991 to 2012. We find the unemployment rate negatively affects the divorce rate, pointing to a pro-cyclical evolution of the divorce rate, even after controlling for socio-economic variables and unobservable characteristics that can vary by country, and/or over time. Results indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate involves almost 0.025 fewer divorces per thousand inhabitants. The impact is small, representing around 1.2% of the average divorce rate in Europe during the period considered. Supplementary analysis, developed to explore a possible non-linear pattern, confirms a negative relationship between unemployment and divorce in European countries, with the inverse relationship being more pronounced in those countries with higher divorce rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael González-Val & Miriam Marcén, 2015. "Divorce and the business cycle: a cross-country analysis," Working Papers 2015/34, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    • Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2015-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ieb.ub.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2015-IEB-WorkingPaper-34.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. M. Nunley, 2010. "Inflation and other aggregate determinants of the trend in US divorce rates since the 1960s," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(26), pages 3367-3381.
    2. Leora Friedberg, 1998. "Did Unilateral Divorce Raise Divorce Rates? Evidence from Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 6398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Yannis M. Ioannides & Henry G. Overman, 2004. "Spatial evolution of the US urban system," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 131-156, April.
    5. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    6. Zvi Eckstein & Osnat Lifshitz, 2011. "Dynamic Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1675-1726, November.
    7. González, Libertad & Viitanen, Tarja K., 2009. "The effect of divorce laws on divorce rates in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 127-138, February.
    8. Jan Eeckhout, 2004. "Gibrat's Law for (All) Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1429-1451, December.
    9. Peters, H Elizabeth, 1986. "Marriage and Divorce: Informational Constraints and Private Contracting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 437-454, June.
    10. Raquel Fernández & Joyce Cheng Wong, 2014. "Divorce Risk, Wages and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life‐Cycle Analysis of Female Labour Force Participation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 319-358, May.
    11. Jensen, Peter & Smith, Nina, 1990. "Unemployment and Marital Dissolution," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(3), pages 215-229, October.
    12. Betsey Stevenson & Justin Wolfers, 2007. "Marriage and Divorce: Changes and their Driving Forces," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 27-52, Spring.
    13. Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates? A Reconciliation and New Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1802-1820, December.
    14. Almudena Sevilla-Sanz & Delia Furtado and Miriam Marcen, 2010. "Does Culture Affect Divorce Decisions? Evidence from European Immigrants in the US," Economics Series Working Papers 495, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. George B. Roberts, Chairman, Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1960. "Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ60-2.
    16. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2012. "Unilateral divorce versus child custody and child support in the U.S," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 613-643.
    17. Gustaf Bruze & Michael Svarer & Yoram Weiss, 2015. "The Dynamics of Marriage and Divorce," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 123-170.
    18. Jessamyn Schaller, 2013. "For richer, if not for poorer? Marriage and divorce over the business cycle," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1007-1033, July.
    19. Miriam Marcén, 2015. "Divorce and the Birth Control Pill in the US, 1950-85," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 151-174, October.
    20. Becker, Gary S & Landes, Elisabeth M & Michael, Robert T, 1977. "An Economic Analysis of Marital Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1141-1187, December.
    21. Delia Furtado & Miriam Marcén & Almudena Sevilla, 2013. "Does Culture Affect Divorce? Evidence From European Immigrants in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 1013-1038, June.
    22. Hamid Baghestani & Michael Malcolm, 2014. "Marriage, divorce and economic activity in the US: 1960--2008," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 528-532, May.
    23. Hellerstein Judith K & Morrill Melinda Sandler, 2011. "Booms, Busts, and Divorce," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, August.
    24. Dudley Kirk, 1960. "The Influence of Business Cycles on Marriage and Birth Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 241-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Alberto Alesina & Edward Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 2001. "Why Doesn't the United States Have a European-Style Welfare State?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 187-278.
    26. Raquel Fern?ndez & Joyce Wong, 2014. "Unilateral Divorce, the Decreasing Gender Gap, and Married Women's Labor Force Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 342-347, May.
    27. Hellerstein, Judith K. & Morrill, Melinda Sandler & Zou, Ben, 2013. "Business cycles and divorce: Evidence from microdata," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 68-70.
    28. Allen, Douglas W., 1998. "No-fault divorce in Canada: Its cause and effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 129-149, October.
    29. Raquel Fernández & Joyce C. Wong, 2014. "Divorce Risk, Wages, and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis of Female Labor Force Participation," NBER Working Papers 19869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anna Barbuscia & Ariane Pailhé & Anne Solaz, 2023. "Do Income and Employment Uncertainty Affect Couple Stability? Evidence for France During the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Cavallini, Flavia, 2024. "Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Rafael González-Val & Miriam Marcén, 2015. "Regional unemployment, marriage, and divorce," Working Papers 2015/38, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    4. Mizuki Komura & Hikaru Ogawa, 2022. "COVID-19, marriage, and divorce in Japan," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 831-853, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafael González-Val & Miriam Marcén, 2018. "Unemployment, marriage and divorce," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1495-1508, March.
    2. Rafael González-Val & Miriam Marcén, 2015. "Regional unemployment, marriage, and divorce," Working Papers 2015/38, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Sanna Huikari & Marko Korhonen & Mikko Puhakka, 2016. "’Til booze do us part: alcohol consumption and marital dissolution," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 831-852, September.
    4. Jakub Harman, 2021. "Does Unemployment Lead To The Breakdown Of A Marriage? Evidence From The Slovak Republic," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 28, pages 9-40, December.
    5. Delia Furtado & Miriam Marcén & Almudena Sevilla, 2013. "Does Culture Affect Divorce? Evidence From European Immigrants in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 1013-1038, June.
    6. Andrew Grant & Steve Satchell, 2019. "Endogenous divorce risk and investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 845-876, July.
    7. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2012. "Unilateral divorce versus child custody and child support in the U.S," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 613-643.
    8. Jessamyn Schaller, 2013. "For richer, if not for poorer? Marriage and divorce over the business cycle," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1007-1033, July.
    9. Rafael González†Val & Miriam Marcén, 2018. "Club Classification of US Divorce Rates," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(4), pages 512-532, July.
    10. Bellido, Héctor & Marcén, Miriam, 2014. "Divorce laws and fertility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 56-70.
    11. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2012. "Breaks in the breaks: An analysis of divorce rates in Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 242-255.
    12. Almudena Sevilla-Sanz & Delia Furtado and Miriam Marcen, 2010. "Does Culture Affect Divorce Decisions? Evidence from European Immigrants in the US," Economics Series Working Papers 495, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Li, Li & Mak, Eric, 2016. "Marriage, Divorce, Remarriage: The Catalyst Effect of Unilateral Divorce," MPRA Paper 83330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Korhonen Marko & Puhakka Mikko, 2021. "The Behavior of Divorce Rates: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    15. Bargain, Olivier & González, Libertad & Keane, Claire & Özcan, Berkay, 2012. "Female labor supply and divorce: New evidence from Ireland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1675-1691.
    16. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2021. "Will you marry me? It depends (on the business cycle)," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 551-579, June.
    17. Lehrer, Evelyn L. & Son, Yeon Jeong, 2017. "Marital Instability in the United States: Trends, Driving Forces, and Implications for Children," IZA Discussion Papers 10503, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Mizuki Komura & Hikaru Ogawa, 2022. "COVID-19, marriage, and divorce in Japan," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 831-853, September.
    19. Sheena Murray, 2017. "Urban Density and the Procyclicality of Divorce," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 411-422.
    20. Edith Aguirre, 2019. "Do changes in divorce legislation have an impact on divorce rates? The case of unilateral divorce in Mexico," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-24, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Divorce; unemployment; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2015-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iebubes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.