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Measuring Our Ignorance, One Book at a Time: New Indicators of Technological Change, 1909-1949

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  • Michelle Alexopoulos
  • Jon Cohen

Abstract

We present new indicators of U.S. technological change for the period 1909-49 based on information in the Library of Congress’ catalogue. We use these indicators to estimate the connections between technological change and economic activity, and to investigate the relationship between fluctuations in innovative activity and the Great Depression. Although we do find links between technological change, output and productivity, our results suggest that the slowdown in technological progress in the early 1930s did not contribute significantly to the Great Depression. On the other hand, the remarkable acceleration in innovations after 1934 did play a role in the recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2009. "Measuring Our Ignorance, One Book at a Time: New Indicators of Technological Change, 1909-1949," Working Papers tecipa-349, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-349
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    1. Remember: Sticky-Wage Keynesianism is a Supply Side Theory, by Garett Jones
      by ? in Econlog on 2013-03-17 15:00:52

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    Cited by:

    1. Masami Imai & Michiru Sawada, 2022. "Does a Financial Crisis Impair Corporate Innovation?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2022-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    2. Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2012. "The Effects of Computer Technologies on the Canadian Economy: Evidence from New Direct Measures," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 23, pages 17-32, Spring.
    3. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    4. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotic, 2022. "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 51-66, March.
    5. Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2024. "Tracking technical change: Past, present and future," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 1047-1087, November.
    6. Madsen, Jakob & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Technological change and inequality in the very long run," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Michelle Alexopoulos and Jon Cohen, 2018. "Canadian Productivity Growth, Secular Stagnation, and Technological Change," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 35, pages 113-137, Fall.
    8. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2011. "Effects of Productivity Shocks on Employment: UK Evidence (revised 25 February 2013)," Carleton Economic Papers 11-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2013.
    9. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Tombe, Trevor, 2012. "Management matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 269-285.
    10. Ling Sun, 2018. "Delayed Output Response to Productivity Shocks in a Monetary Search Model," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 251-266, September.
    11. Mr. Tao Wu & Mr. Michele Cavallo, 2012. "Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information," IMF Working Papers 2012/019, International Monetary Fund.
    12. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2025. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(4), pages 691-710, August.
    13. Samira Hasanzadeh, 2017. "Dissemination of Two Faces of Knowledge: Do Liberal-Democracy and Income-Level Matter?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-09, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    14. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2011. "Read All about It!! What Happens Following a Technology Shock?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1144-1179, June.
    15. Frydman, Carola & Papanikolaou, Dimitris, 2018. "In search of ideas: Technological innovation and executive pay inequality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 1-24.
    16. John G. Fernald, 2016. "Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?," Working Paper Series 2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Tsai, I-Chun, 2017. "The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 122-131.
    18. Ramey, Valerie A., 2020. "Secular stagnation or technological lull?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 767-777.
    19. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    20. Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2016. "The Medium Is the Measure: Technical Change and Employment, 1909—1949," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 792-810, October.
    21. Richard B. Freeman & Alice O. Nakamura & Leonard I. Nakamura & Marc Prudhomme & Amanda Pyman, 2011. "Wal-Mart innovation and productivity: a viewpoint," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 486-508, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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