IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/syd/wpaper/2020-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Preemption with a Second-Mover Advantage

Author

Listed:
  • Smirnov, Vladimir
  • Wait, Andrew

Abstract

We examine innovation in a market-entry timing game with complete information and observable actions when there is a second-mover advantage. Allowing for heterogenous payoffs between players, and for both leader's and follower's payoff functions to be multi-peaked and non-monotonic, we find that there are at most two pure-strategy subgame perfect equilibria. Sometimes these resemble familiar second-mover advantage equilibria from the literature. However, we show that despite there being a follower advantage at all times, there can be a preemption equilibrium with inefficient early entry. In fact, immediate entry is possible in a continuous analogue of the centipede game. These results are related to the observed premature entry and product launches in various markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2020. "Preemption with a Second-Mover Advantage," Working Papers 2020-06, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2020-06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econ-wpseries.com/2020/202006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis Bloch & Simona Fabrizi & Steffen Lippert, 2015. "Learning and collusion in new markets with uncertain entry costs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 273-303, February.
    2. Dutta, Prajit K & Rustichini, Aldo, 1993. "A Theory of Stopping Time Games with Applications to Product Innovations and Asset Sales," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(4), pages 743-763, October.
    3. Heidrun C. Hoppe & Ulrich Lehmann‐Grube, 2001. "Second‐Mover Advantages in Dynamic Quality Competition," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 419-433, September.
    4. Maria Alipranti & Chrysovalantou Miliou & Emmanuel Petrakis, 2014. "On Vertical Relations and Technology Adoption Timing," Working Papers 1502, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    5. Dutta, Prajit K & Lach, Saul & Rustichini, Aldo, 1995. "Better Late Than Early: Vertical Differentiation in the Adoption of a New Technology," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 563-589, Winter.
    6. Hendricks, Kenneth, 1992. "Reputations in the adoption of a new technology," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 663-677, December.
    7. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    8. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskiĭ, Sergei, 2014. "Preemption games under Lévy uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 354-380.
    9. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1984. "The Fat-Cat Effect, the Puppy-Dog Ploy, and the Lean and Hungry Look," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 361-366, May.
    10. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2015. "Innovation in a generalized timing game," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 23-33.
    11. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1986. "A Theory of Exit in Duopoly," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 943-960, July.
    12. Rohan Pitchford & Mark L. J. Wright, 2012. "Holdouts in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Theory of Negotiation in a Weak Contractual Environment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 812-837.
    13. Jordi McKenzie & Vladimir Smirnov, 2018. "Blockbusters and market expansion: evidence from the motion picture industry," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 42(2), pages 341-352, May.
    14. Milliou, Chrysovalantou & Petrakis, Emmanuel, 2011. "Timing of technology adoption and product market competition," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 513-523, September.
    15. Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2011. "Strategic Entry Deterrence and the Behavior of Pharmaceutical Incumbents Prior to Patent Expiration," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-36, February.
    16. Yao-Wen Hsu & Bart Lambrecht, 2007. "Preemptive patenting under uncertainty and asymmetric information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 5-28, April.
    17. Rossella Argenziano & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2014. "Clustering In N-Player Preemption Games," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 368-396, April.
    18. Jennifer F. Reinganum, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405.
    19. Jennifer F. Reinganum, 1981. "Market Structure and the Diffusion of New Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 618-624, Autumn.
    20. Alipranti, Maria & Milliou, Chrysovalantou & Petrakis, Emmanuel, 2015. "On vertical relations and the timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 117-129.
    21. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1987. "R&D Rivalry with Licensing or Imitation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 402-420, June.
    22. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    23. Simon, Leo K & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B, 1989. "Extensive Form Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1171-1214, September.
    24. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Mariotti, Thomas, 2012. "Potential competition in preemption games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 53-66.
    25. Michael H. Riordan, 1992. "Regulation and Preemptive Technology Adoption," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 23(3), pages 334-349, Autumn.
    26. Axel Anderson & Lones Smith & Andreas Park, 2017. "Rushes in Large Timing Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 871-913, May.
    27. Argenziano, Rossella & Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp, 2013. "Competition, timing of entry and welfare in a preemption game," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 509-512.
    28. Argenziano, Rossella & Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp, 2012. "Inefficient entry order in preemption games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 445-460.
    29. Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2018. "Preemptive investment under uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 90-119.
    30. Flavio Menezes & Rohan Pitchford, 2004. "A model of seller holdout," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(2), pages 231-253, August.
    31. Hoppe, Heidrun C. & Lehmann-Grube, Ulrich, 2005. "Innovation timing games: a general framework with applications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 30-50, March.
    32. Van Long Ngo, 2010. "A Survey of Dynamic Games in Economics," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7577, August.
    33. Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Francesco Squintani, 2011. "Preemption Games with Private Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 667-692.
    34. Smirnov Vladimir & Wait Andrew, 2007. "Staged Financing with a Variable Return," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, February.
    35. Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2006. "The Timing of New Technology Adoption: The Case of MRI," 2006 Meeting Papers 3, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Rohan Pitchford & Mark L. J. Wright, 2017. "Settlement games with rank-order payoffs and applications to sovereign debt restructuring," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 847-876, December.
    37. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2018. "Blocking in a timing game with asymmetric players," Working Papers 2018-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised May 2019.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2022. "On identifying subgame-perfect equilibrium outcomes for timing games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 74-78.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2018. "Blocking in a timing game with asymmetric players," Working Papers 2018-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised May 2019.
    2. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew, 2015. "Innovation in a generalized timing game," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 23-33.
    3. Smirnov, Vladimir & Wait, Andrew & Xu, Rong, 2018. "Timing of entry with heterogeneous firms," Working Papers 2018-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    4. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Mariotti, Thomas, 2012. "Potential competition in preemption games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 53-66.
    5. Pavan, Giulia & Pozzi, Andrea & Rovigatti, Gabriele, 2020. "Strategic entry and potential competition: Evidence from compressed gas fuel retail," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Alipranti, Maria & Milliou, Chrysovalantou & Petrakis, Emmanuel, 2015. "On vertical relations and the timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 117-129.
    7. Rossella Argenziano & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2014. "Clustering In N-Player Preemption Games," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 368-396, April.
    8. Sun Chia-Hung, 2020. "Timing of Adopting a Flexible Manufacturing System and Product Differentiation," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Rossella Argenziano & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2014. "Clustering In N-Player Preemption Games," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 368-396, 04.
    10. Alexander Matros & Vladimir Smirnov & Andrew Wait, 2024. "Sunk costs, entry and clustering," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(3), pages 747-782, May.
    11. Milliou, Chrysovalantou & Petrakis, Emmanuel, 2011. "Timing of technology adoption and product market competition," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 513-523, September.
    12. Maria Alipranti & Emmanuel Petrakis, 2022. "Upstream market structure and the timing of technology adoption," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1298-1310, July.
    13. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Levy, Raphaël & Mariotti, Thomas, 2021. "Negative results in science: Blessing or (winner's) curse ?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Hoppe, Heidrun C., 2000. "Second-mover advantages in the strategic adoption of new technology under uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 315-338, February.
    15. Sun, Chia-Hung, 2023. "Timing of technology adoption in the presence of patent licensing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Argenziano, Rossella & Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp, 2012. "Inefficient entry order in preemption games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 445-460.
    17. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    18. Benoit Voudon, 2019. "Technology Adoption under Asymmetric Market Structure," Trinity Economics Papers tep0819, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    19. Alberto Galasso & Mihkel Tombak, 2014. "Switching to Green: The Timing of Socially Responsible Innovation," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 669-691, September.
    20. Femminis Gianluca & Martini Gianmaria, 2010. "First-Mover Advantage in a Dynamic Duopoly with Spillover," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-46, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    timing games; second-mover advantage; preemption.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2020-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vanessa Holcombe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deusyau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.