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Preemptive investment under uncertainty

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  • Steg, Jan-Henrik

Abstract

This paper provides a general characterization of subgame-perfect equilibria for strategic timing problems, where two firms have the (real) option to make an irreversible investment. Profit streams are uncertain and depend on the market structure. The analysis is based directly on the inherent economic structure of the model. In particular, determining equilibria with preemptive investment is reduced to solving a single class of constrained optimal stopping problems. Further tools are derived for analyzing Markovian state-space models. Applications to typical models from the literature complete commonly insufficient equilibrium arguments, show when uncertainty leads to qualitatively different behavior, and establish additional equilibria that are Pareto improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2018. "Preemptive investment under uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 90-119.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:110:y:2018:i:c:p:90-119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2018.03.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco, 2015. "Quick or Persistent? Strategic Investment Demanding Versatility," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 541, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    6. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    7. Simon, Leo K & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B, 1989. "Extensive Form Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1171-1214, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Preemption; Real options; Irreversible investment; Subgame-perfect equilibrium; Optimal stopping;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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