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The Elusive Recovery: iAGS 2017

Listed author(s):
  • Georg Feigl
  • Markus Marterbauer
  • Miriam Rehm
  • Matthias Schnetzer
  • Sepp Zuckerstätter
  • Lars Andersen
  • Thea Nissen
  • Signe Dahl
  • Peter Hohlfeld
  • Benjamin Lojak
  • Thomas Theobald
  • Achim Truger
  • Andrew Watt

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Guillaume Allegre

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Céline Antonin

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Christophe Blot

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Jérôme Creel

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Bruno Ducoudre

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Paul Hubert

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Sabine Lebayon
  • Sandrine Levasseur

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Hélène Périvier

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Raul Sampognaro

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Aurélien Saussay

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Vincent Touze

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Sébastien Villemot

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Nearly nine years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, recovery in Europe finally started in late 2014. We expect that economic growth is going to slow down in the EU in 2017 (1.6% after 1.9 % in 2016) and in 2018 (1.5%) as tailwinds are turning into headwinds. Brexit is likely to hit UK growth and will have negative, but limited, contagion effects to the rest of the EU. Oil prices are up again and not much more can be expected in terms of competitiveness gains through the exchange rate channel. More importantly the slowdown of international trade and of emerging countries’ growth is weakening external demand to the EU and hence another positive factor is waning. [First paragraph]

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/55823teuik94dohv8heu8n9tmu/resources/2016-the-elusive-recovery.pdf
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Date of creation: Nov 2016
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/55823teuik94dohv8heu8n9tmu
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