Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China
Nomadic conquests have helped to shape world history, yet we know little about why they occurred. Using climate and dynastic data from historical China since 221 BCE, this study finds that the likelihood of nomadic conquest increased with less rainfall proxied by drought disasters, which drove pastoral nomads to attack agrarian Chinese for survival. Moreover, consistent with the dynastic cycle hypothesis, the likelihood of China being conquered increased when a Chinese dynasty was established earlier (and hence was weaker, on average) than a rival nomadic regime. These results survive a variety of robustness checks, including using the latitude of the Sino-nomadic border as an alternative dependent variable. The dynastic cycle effect also persists in an extension to world history. The effects of other climate shocks, such as snow, frost, and temperature anomaly, are not robust.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carol H. Shiue, 2002. "Transport Costs and the Geography of Arbitrage in Eighteenth-Century China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1406-1419, December.
- M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2008.
"Rain and the democratic window of opportunity,"
Economics Working Papers
1114, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2009.
- Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Working Papers 1010, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Working Papers 2009-38, FEDEA.
- Brückner, Markus & Ciccone, Antonio, 2008. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Markus Brückner, 2010. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," 2010 Meeting Papers 224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Carol H. Shiue & Wolfgang Keller, 2004.
"Markets in China and Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution,"
NBER Working Papers
10778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carol H. Shiue & Wolfgang Keller, 2007. "Markets in China and Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1189-1216, September.
- Keller, Wolfgang & Shiue, Carol Hua, 2004. "Markets in China and Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 4420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Antonio Ciccone, 2013.
"Estimating the Effect of Transitory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict,"
Review of Economics and Institutions,
Università di Perugia, vol. 4(2).
- Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict," Economics Working Papers 1063, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Christos Pitelis & Roger Sugden & James R. Wilson, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Clusters and Globalisation, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
- Anna Alberini & James R. Kahn, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Handbook on Contingent Valuation, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:shn:wpaper:2012-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Qiang Chen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.