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Climate shocks, dynastic cycles and nomadic conquests: evidence from historical China

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  • Qiang Chen

Abstract

Nomadic conquests have helped shape world history, yet we know little about why they occurred. Using a unique climate and dynastic data set from historical China dating from 221 BCE, this study finds that the likelihood of nomadic conquest increases with less rainfall proxied by drought disasters, which drove pastoral nomads to attack agrarian Chinese for survival. Moreover, consistent with the dynastic cycle hypothesis, the likelihood of China being conquered increases with the number of years earlier that a Chinese dynasty had been established (and hence was weaker, on average) relative to a rival nomadic regime. These results survive a variety of robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Chen, 2015. "Climate shocks, dynastic cycles and nomadic conquests: evidence from historical China," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 185-204.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:2:p:185-204.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpu032
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Liu & Huiming Song & Zhisheng An & Qiang Li & Steven W. Leavitt & Ulf Büntgen & Qiufang Cai & Ruoshi Liu & Congxi Fang & Changfeng Sun & Kerstin Treydte & Meng Ren & Lidong Mo & Yi Song & Wenju Cai, 2025. "Recent centennial drought on the Tibetan Plateau is outstanding within the past 3500 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Olivier Damette & Stephane Goutte & Qing Pei, 2020. "Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world: evidence of the historical China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2055-2071, December.
    3. Jianxin Cui & Hong Chang & George S. Burr & Xiaolong Zhao & Baoming Jiang, 2019. "Climatic change and the rise of the Manchu from Northeast China during AD 1600–1650," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 405-423, October.
    4. Lloyd Chigusiwa & George Kembo & Terrence Kairiza, 2023. "Drought and social conflict in rural Zimbabwe: Does the burden fall on women and girls?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 178-197, February.
    5. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2023. "Modeling the global sovereign credit network under climate change," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Jiwei Qian & Tuan‐Hwee Sng, 2021. "The state in Chinese economic history," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 359-395, November.
    7. Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Deininger, Klaus & Monchuk, Daniel, 2020. "Using satellite imagery to assess impacts of soil and water conservation measures: Evidence from Ethiopia’s Tana-Beles watershed," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Qiang Chen, 2014. "Natural Disasters, Ethnic Diversity, and the Size of Nations: Two Thousand Years of Unification and Division in Historical China," SDU Working Papers 2014-01, School of Economics, Shandong University.
    9. Qiang Chen, 2015. "Climate Shocks, State Capacity and Peasant Uprisings in North China during 25–1911 ce," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(326), pages 295-318, April.
    10. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Mark Koyama & Youhong Lin & Tuan-Hwee Sng, 2023. "The Fractured-Land Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1173-1231.
    11. Shunran Wang & Fangping Rao & Xianlei Ma & Xiaoping Shi, 2022. "Farmland Dispute Prevention: The Role of Land Titling, Social Capital and Household Capability," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-14, October.
    12. Chiu Yu Ko & Mark Koyama & Tuan†Hwee Sng, 2018. "Unified China And Divided Europe," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 285-327, February.
    13. Weiwei Xiao & Xing Yi & Yuqing Zhong & Xiuxiu Yin, 2025. "Commercial Social Capital and Social Conflict: Historical Evidence From China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(4), pages 2413-2430, June.
    14. Haiwen Zhou, 2023. "Unification and Division: A Theory of Institutional Choices in Imperial China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 13-37, May.
    15. Weiwen Yin, 2020. "Climate Shocks, Political Institutions, and Nomadic Invasions in Early Modern East Asia," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(6), pages 1043-1069, July.
    16. Kevin Sylwester, 2019. "Imperial Synchronicity in Eurasia: 300 BCE To 1500 CE," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 7(2), pages 59-73.
    17. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-02726466 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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