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Recent centennial drought on the Tibetan Plateau is outstanding within the past 3500 years

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Huiming Song

    (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Zhisheng An

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Qiang Li

    (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Steven W. Leavitt

    (The University of Arizona)

  • Ulf Büntgen

    (University of Cambridge
    Czech Academy of Sciences
    Masaryk University)

  • Qiufang Cai

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ruoshi Liu

    (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Congxi Fang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Changfeng Sun

    (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Kerstin Treydte

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL)
    University of Bern)

  • Meng Ren

    (Xi’an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment Research)

  • Lidong Mo

    (ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology))

  • Yi Song

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Wenju Cai

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Quan Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Weijian Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Achim Bräuning

    (Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg)

  • Jussi Grießinger

    (Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg
    University of Salzburg)

  • Deliang Chen

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Hans W. Linderholm

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Ashish Sinha

    (Dominguez Hills)

  • Hai Cheng

    (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Lu Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ying Lei

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Junyan Sun

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Wei Gong

    (Peking University)

  • Xuxiang Li

    (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Linlin Cui

    (Chengdu University of Information Technology)

  • Liang Ning

    (Nanjing Normal University
    Nanjing Normal University
    Nanjing Normal University)

  • Lingfeng Wan

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Thomas W. Crowther

    (ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology))

  • Constantin M. Zohner

    (ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology))

Abstract

Given growing concerns about global climate change, it is critical to understand both historical and current shifts in the hydroclimate, particularly in regions critically entwined with global circulation. The Tibetan Plateau, the Earth’s largest and highest plateau, is a nexus for global atmospheric processes, significantly influencing East Asian hydroclimate dynamics through the synergy of the Asian Monsoon and the Westerlies. Yet, understanding historical and recent hydroclimate fluctuations and their wide-ranging ecological and societal consequences remains challenging due to short instrumental observations and partly ambiguous proxy reconstructions. Here, we present a precisely-dated 3476-year precipitation reconstruction derived from tree-ring δ18O data on the Tibetan Plateau, representing one of the few multi-millennia-long annually-resolved terrestrial δ18O records to date. Our findings reveal that the 20th century drought extremes are severe within the past three millennia, and likely linked to the weakening of both the Asian Monsoon and Westerlies due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Additionally, our analyses identified three distinct stages (110 BC–AD 280, AD 330–770 and AD 950–1300) characterized by shifts toward arid hydroclimate conditions, corresponding to significant social unrest and dynasty collapses, which underscores the potential societal impacts of severe hydroclimatic shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Liu & Huiming Song & Zhisheng An & Qiang Li & Steven W. Leavitt & Ulf Büntgen & Qiufang Cai & Ruoshi Liu & Congxi Fang & Changfeng Sun & Kerstin Treydte & Meng Ren & Lidong Mo & Yi Song & Wenju Cai, 2025. "Recent centennial drought on the Tibetan Plateau is outstanding within the past 3500 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56687-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56687-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiang Chen, 2015. "Climate shocks, dynastic cycles and nomadic conquests: evidence from historical China," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 185-204.
    2. Felicia Chiang & Omid Mazdiyasni & Amir AghaKouchak, 2021. "Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Buwen Dong & Rowan T. Sutton & Len Shaffrey & Ben Harvey, 2022. "Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Kerstin S. Treydte & Gerhard H. Schleser & Gerhard Helle & David C. Frank & Matthias Winiger & Gerald H. Haug & Jan Esper, 2006. "The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7088), pages 1179-1182, April.
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