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Methodological Principles of Prediction of Tax Revenues of Budgetary System

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  • P. A. Nazarov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Kazakova, Maria

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

Analysis of the dynamics of the main parameters of the federal budget in 2005-2007 and in 2008-2009 shows that a significant part of the changes of these parameters is explained by the state of the world's foreign economic conditions, while the identification of stable relationships between the dynamics of the budget parameters and the basic macroeconomic indicators is a task that requires extra special analysis. In this regard, relevant to the study is the relationship between these parameters and the main macroeconomic variables. The aim of this work is to study the methodological problems in predicting the basic parameters of the budgetary system, including revenues from the main taxes and government spending, in order to use these results when making decisions in the area of ??fiscal policy, as well as the publication of forecasts on a regular basis.

Suggested Citation

  • P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Methodological Principles of Prediction of Tax Revenues of Budgetary System," Published Papers r90219, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ppaper:r90219
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    budget; Russia; fiscal policy;
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