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Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting


  • Glenn Jenkins

    () (Queen's University, Kingston, On, Canada)


    (Queen's University, Kingston, On, Canada)


    (Development Associate at the Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University)


Tax analysis and forecasting of revenues are of critical importance to governments in ensuring stability in tax and expenditure policies. To augment timely and effective analysis of the revenue aspects of the fiscal policy, governments have increasingly turned toward in-house tax policy units rather than relying on tax experts from outside their countries. These tax policy units have been increasingly called upon to analyze the impact of tax policies on the economy and to estimate the revenue implications of tax measures, with the ultimate objective of ensuring a healthy fiscal situation within the economy. Tax policy units also help ensure that tax systems are efficient, fair, and simple to understand and comply with. Such systems help to create an economic environment that is conducive to greater social justice. This manual provides a basic set of guidelines in both theory and practice to carry out this analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn Jenkins & CHUN-YAN KUO & GANGADHAR SHUKLA, 2000. "Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting," Development Discussion Papers 2000-05, JDI Executive Programs.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:dpaper:169

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    2. repec:idb:idbbks:276 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gangadha Prasad Shukla & Duc Minh Pham & Michael Engelschalk & Tuan Minh Le, 2011. "Tax Reform in Vietnam," World Bank Other Operational Studies 26851, The World Bank.
    4. Manuel R. Agosin & Alberto Daniel Barreix & Roberto Machado & Juan C. Gómez Sabaini & Jorge Cornick & Carlos Acevedo & Mauricio González Orellana & Osvaldo H. Schenone & Carlos de la Torre, 2005. "Recaudar para crecer: Bases para la reforma tributaria en Centroamérica," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 20678 edited by Manuel R. Agosin & Alberto Daniel Barreix & Roberto Machado, February.
    5. Hassen, Azime A., 2016. "Agricultural taxation and economic growth in Ethiopia," 2016 AAAE Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246395, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    6. Sabaj, Ernil & Kahveci, Mustafa, 2018. "Forecasting tax revenues in an emerging economy: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 84404, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    revenue forecasting; tax analysis; tax modeling; revenue collection; tax expenditure analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies


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