IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/ewikln/2018_002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Allocation of Variable Renewable Energy Considering Contributions to Security of Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Peter, Jakob

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))

  • Wagner, Johannes

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))

Abstract

Electricity markets are increasingly influenced by variable renewable energy such as wind and solar power with a pronounced weather-induced variability and imperfect predictability. As a result, the evaluation of the capacity value of variable renewable energy, i.e. its contribution to security of supply, gains importance. This paper develops a new methodology to endogenously determine the capacity value in large-scale investment and dispatch models for electricity markets. The framework allows to account for balancing effects due to the spatial distribution of generation capacities and interconnectors. The practical applicability of the methodology is shown with an application for wind power in Europe. We find that wind power can substantially contribute to security of supply in a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050, with regional capacity values ranging from 1 - 40%. Analyses, which do not account for the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the contribution of wind power to security of supply therefore lead to inefficient levels of dispatchable back-up capacity. Applying a fixed wind power capacity value of 5% results in an overestimation of firm capacity requirements in Europe by 66GW in 2050. This translates to additional firm capacity provision costs of 3.8 bn EUR per year in 2050, which represents an increase of 7%.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter, Jakob & Wagner, Johannes, 2018. "Optimal Allocation of Variable Renewable Energy Considering Contributions to Security of Supply," EWI Working Papers 2018-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2018_002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/cms/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/EWI_WP_18-02_Optimal_allocation_of_variable_renewable_energy_considering_contributions_to_security_of_supply.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hagspiel, Simeon & Knaut, Andreas & Peter, Jakob, 2017. "Reliability in Multy-Regional Power Systems - Capacity Adequacy and the Role of Interconnectors," EWI Working Papers 2017-7, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 29 Jun 2018.
    2. Hagspiel, Simeon, 2018. "Reliability with interdependent suppliers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 161-173.
    3. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Carpe diem: A novel approach to select representative days for long-term power system modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 430-442.
    4. S Zachary & C J Dent, 2012. "Probability theory of capacity value of additional generation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(1), pages 33-43, February.
    5. repec:bla:wireae:v:6:y:2017:i:1:p:n/a-n/a is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Newbery, David, 2016. "Missing money and missing markets: Reliability, capacity auctions and interconnectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-410.
    7. Joachim Bertsch & Simeon Hagspiel & Lisa Just, 2016. "Congestion management in power systems," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 290-327, December.
    8. Voorspools, Kris R. & D'haeseleer, William D., 2006. "An analytical formula for the capacity credit of wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 45-54.
    9. Richter, Jan, 2011. "DIMENSION - A Dispatch and Investment Model for European Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2011-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    10. Hagspiel, Simeon, 2017. "Reliable Electricity: The Effects of System Integration and Cooperative Measures to Make it Work," EWI Working Papers 2017-13, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    11. Cynthia Bothwell and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2017. "Crediting Wind and Solar Renewables in Electricity Capacity Markets: The Effects of Alternative Definitions upon Market Efficiency," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    12. Lijesen, Mark G., 2007. "The real-time price elasticity of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 249-258, March.
    13. Michael L. Telson, 1975. "The Economies of Alternative Levels of Reliability for Electric Power Generation Systems," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(2), pages 679-694, Autumn.
    14. M. Cepeda & M. Saguan & D. Finon & V. Pignon, 2009. "Generation adequacy and transmission interconnection in regional electricity markets," Post-Print hal-00716344, HAL.
    15. Henckes, Philipp & Knaut, Andreas & Obermüller, Frank & Frank, Christopher, 2018. "The benefit of long-term high resolution wind data for electricity system analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 934-942.
    16. Knaut, Andreas & Tode, Christian & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Malischek, Raimund & Paulus, Simon & Wagner, Johannes, 2016. "The reference forecast of the German energy transition—An outlook on electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 477-491.
    17. Hagspiel, S. & Jägemann, C. & Lindenberger, D. & Brown, T. & Cherevatskiy, S. & Tröster, E., 2014. "Cost-optimal power system extension under flow-based market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 654-666.
    18. Peter Cramton & Axel Ockenfels & Steven Stoft, 2013. "Capacity Market Fundamentals," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    19. Cepeda, Mauricio & Saguan, Marcelo & Finon, Dominique & Pignon, Virginie, 2009. "Generation adequacy and transmission interconnection in regional electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5612-5622, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Helgeson, Broghan & Peter, Jakob, 2020. "The role of electricity in decarbonizing European road transport – Development and assessment of an integrated multi-sectoral model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Peter, Jakob, 2019. "How does climate change affect electricity system planning and optimal allocation of variable renewable energy?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reliability of supply; Capacity adequacy; Multi-regional power system; Wind power; Power system modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2018_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Williams). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ewikode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.