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A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation: results for Germany until 2030 given a high level of intermittent electricity feed-in

Author

Listed:
  • Paulus, Moritz

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Grave, Katharina

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Lindenberger, Dietmar

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a methodology for deriving a consistent measure for supply adequacy in the power generation sector. We especially consider the secured generation capacity of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind. Availability of conventional power plants is estimated through stochastic convolution of unscheduled non-usabilities. We employ our methodology to measure supply security in Germany until 2030. A detailed market analysis of power plants that are currently being built or planned provides support to our analysis for the short term. For the long term, we rely on a large-scale dispatch and investment model of the European power sector to account for the embedding of the German electricity sector in the European market. We analyze two scenarios: one with prolongation of nuclear power plants and one with a nuclear phase-out. Our results show that, even though intermittent renewables only provide very limited secured generation capacity, security of electricity supply in Germany can be assured until 2015. In the long term, the need for backup capacity for renewable energy sources increases as well as the need for electricity imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulus, Moritz & Grave, Katharina & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2011. "A methodology to estimate security of supply in electricity generation: results for Germany until 2030 given a high level of intermittent electricity feed-in," EWI Working Papers 2011-10, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolosi, Marco, 2010. "Wind power integration and power system flexibility-An empirical analysis of extreme events in Germany under the new negative price regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7257-7268, November.
    2. Finon, Dominique & Pignon, Virginie, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 143-158, September.
    3. Roques, Fabien A., 2008. "Market design for generation adequacy: Healing causes rather than symptoms," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 171-183, September.
    4. D. Finon & V. Pignon, 2008. "Electricity and long-term capacity adequacy: The quest for regulatory mechanism compatible with electricity market," Post-Print hal-00716312, HAL.
    5. Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "Germany's wind energy: The potential for fossil capacity replacement and cost saving," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1857-1863, October.
    6. MacCormack, John & Hollis, Aidan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Rosehart, William, 2010. "The large-scale integration of wind generation: Impacts on price, reliability and dispatchable conventional suppliers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3837-3846, July.
    7. Paulus, Moritz & Borggrefe, Frieder, 2011. "The potential of demand-side management in energy-intensive industries for electricity markets in Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 432-441, February.
    8. Boccard, Nicolas, 2010. "Economic properties of wind power: A European assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3232-3244, July.
    9. Batlle, C. & Rodilla, P., 2010. "A critical assessment of the different approaches aimed to secure electricity generation supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7169-7179, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply adequacy; integration of renewable energy sources; power generation; German power sector; secured generation capacity;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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