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Evaluating COVID-19’s Impact on Firm Performance in the CAREC Region Using Night-Time Light Data: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia

Author

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  • Kamalbek Karymshakov

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Dina Azhgaliyeva

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Ranjeeta Mishra

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Dastan Aseinov

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

We examine economic activity measured with firm performance indicators using the changes in intensity of night-time light in four Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation economies: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. The empirical analysis is based on the World Bank Enterprise Survey data for 2019 and a follow-up survey conducted during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The enterprise survey dataset was enhanced with data on night-time light intensity from Google Earth and the strictness of “lockdown-style” policies. Using the probit regression model, we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on firm performance and night-time light in CAREC countries. Firm performance is measured using four variables: decrease in sales, demand, export share, and working hours. Our results show that, as the night-time light increases, the likelihood of performance deterioration is reduced. Larger firms are more likely to maintain their performance than smaller firms. The sales in the manufacturing, clothing, and services sectors are more likely to decline than those in the food sector. Accordingly, the results point to a significant decline in the performance of firms operating in the service sector compared with those in the food sector during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamalbek Karymshakov & Dina Azhgaliyeva & Ranjeeta Mishra & Dastan Aseinov, 2022. "Evaluating COVID-19’s Impact on Firm Performance in the CAREC Region Using Night-Time Light Data: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia," ADBI Working Papers 1332, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1332
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dastan Aseinov & Burulcha Sulaimanova & Kamalbek Karymshakov & Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2022. "What Determines the Adaptation of Enterprises to COVID-19 in CAREC Member Countries: Empirical Evidence from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia," ADBI Working Papers 1299, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Asia; COVID-19; big data; firm performance; gender; SMEs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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