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The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data

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  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma

    (University of Kent)

  • Alessio Moro

    (University of Cagliari)

Abstract

We investigate the effect of structural transformation on economic growth in the U.S. and in cross-country data. Measuring the outcome of a two-sector growth model by using NIPA conventions, structural transformation in the U.S. induces a decline of 36% in the aggregate marginal product of capital, of 5.4% in the real interest rate, and of 16% in the growth rate of per-capita GDP between 1950 and 2015. By retaining the U.S. calibration, the process of structural transformation can also account, per-se, for cross-country differences in real investment/GDP ratios, which are comparable to those displayed by the U.S. along its growth path.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Alessio Moro, 2018. "The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data," 2018 Meeting Papers 424, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:424
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dennis C. Hutschenreiter & Tommaso Santini & Eugenia Vella, 2022. "Automation and sectoral reallocation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 335-362, May.
    3. Simon Alder & Timo Boppart & Andreas Müller, 2022. "A Theory of Structural Change That Can Fit the Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 160-206, April.
    4. Duarte, Margarida, 2020. "Manufacturing consumption, relative prices, and productivity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Nadine Yamout & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Dutch Disease, Unemployment and Structural Change," CAMA Working Papers 2023-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Moro, Alessio & Valdes, Carlo, 2019. "Stuctural transformation in general equilibrium," MERIT Working Papers 2019-049, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Duernecker, Georg & Herrendorf, Berthold & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2021. "The productivity growth slowdown and Kaldor’s growth facts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Martí Mestieri & Daniel G. O'Connor, 2020. "The Stable Transformation Path," NBER Working Papers 27731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Baumol's Climate Disease," Papers 2312.00160, arXiv.org.
    10. Mariarosaria Comunale & Giulia Felice, 2022. "Trade and structural change: An empirical investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 171, pages 80-109.
    11. Rubini, Loris & Moro, Alessio, 2019. "Stochastic Structural Change," MPRA Paper 96144, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Valentinyi, Akos & Duernecker, Georg & Herrendorf, Berthold, 2020. "Measuring Aggregate Economic Activity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12300, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & Akos Valentinyi, 2019. "Growth and the Kaldor Facts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 101(4), pages 259-276.
    14. Maja Bacovic & Zivko Andrijasevic & Julija Cerovic Smolovic, 2022. "Structural Changes and Growth in Europe: Are Knowledge-intensive Services Changing Paradigm of Expansion of Services as a Long-term Growth-diminishing Factor?," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(2), pages 124-143, February.
    15. Liao, Hua & Ye, Huiying, 2023. "Endogenous economic structure, climate change, and the optimal abatement path," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 417-429.
    16. Chen, Chaoran, 2020. "Capital-skill complementarity, sectoral labor productivity, and structural transformation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Bripi, Francesco & Bronzini, Raffaello & Gentili, Elena & Linarello, Andrea & Scarinzi, Elisa, 2024. "Structural change and firm dynamics in Southern Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 678-691.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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