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The rise of the service economy and the real return on capital

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  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma
  • Alessio Moro

Abstract

We use a two-sector model of structural transformation and balanced growth to show that the real interest rate, measured as the return on capital in units of GDP or in units of aggregate consumption, declines as income grows. This is due to the differential TFP growth in the goods producing sector relative to the services sector. This differential drives a relative price change that triggers a steady decline in the rate of return on capital along the growth path. We calibrate the model to U.S. data to reproduce the behavior of GDP, the share of services in consumption, the relative price goods/services and the investment/output ratio in the period 1950-2015. We find that the calibrated model displays a decline of the real interest rate of 36% in terms of units of GDP and of 43% in terms of units of aggregate consumption during the period considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Alessio Moro, 2016. "The rise of the service economy and the real return on capital," Studies in Economics 1604, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    7. Mr. Sergio Rebelo & Ms. Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 2001/085, International Monetary Fund.
    8. François Gourio & Thomas H. Klier, 2015. "Recent Trends in Capital Accumulation and Implications for Investment," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Ronald Wendner, 2020. "Dynamic Status Effects, Savings, And Income Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 351-382, February.
    2. Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Factor Substitution and Productivity in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(304), pages 64-79, March.
    3. Valentinyi, Akos & Herrendorf, Berthold & Duernecker, Georg, 2017. "Structural Change within the Service Sector and the Future of Baumol's Disease," CEPR Discussion Papers 12467, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural transformation; productivity of capital; two-sector model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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