IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed017/576.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revisiting the Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations: The Role of Spillovers of U.S. News Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre De Leo

    (Boston College)

  • Vito Cormun

    (Boston College)

Abstract

Recursive vector autoregression (VAR) analysis suggests that the nominal exchange rate tends to depreciate after a contractionary monetary policy shock in most developing countries, a puzzle for virtually all open-economy macroeconomic models. Using a structural VAR approach, we document that when the U.S. economic outlook worsens developing countries' exchange rates signicantly depreciate and their policy-controlled interest rates increase. We show that commonly used recursive VAR schemes inevitably confound these correlations for the monetary policy innovation. In our econometric framework, we identify the spillover effects of future U.S. business cycles as the innovations that best explain future movements in the Federal Funds rate over an horizon of two years. When the monetary policy shock is then cleansed of these variations, the exchange rate response puzzle disappears. We conclude by showing that a standard small open economy model with news about future fundamentals in a large economy is consistent with all the empirical findings of this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre De Leo & Vito Cormun, 2017. "Revisiting the Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations: The Role of Spillovers of U.S. News Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:576
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2017/paper_576.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2016. "Monetary News, U.S. Interest Rate and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies," Economics Working Papers ECO2016/10, European University Institute.
    2. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    3. Avdjiev, Stefan & Hardy, Bryan & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Serv�n, Luis, 2017. "Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    6. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    7. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 69-96.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Rudel & Peter Tillmann, 2018. "News Shock Spillovers: How the Euro Area Responds to Expected Fed Policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201832, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Devereux, Michael B. & Young, Eric R. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Capital controls and monetary policy in sudden-stop economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-74.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    3. Leon W. Berkelmans, 2008. "Imperfect information and monetary models: multiple shocks and their consequences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Paul Wohlfarth, 2018. "Measuring the Impact of Monetary Policy Attention on Global Asset Volatility Using Search Data," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1803, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    5. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2018. "Monetary Policy Responses to External Spillovers in Emerging Market Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 6, pages 183-223, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Andrés Felipe Londoño & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    8. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics under Staggered Loan Contracts," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2007. "External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2512-2520, November.
    10. Javier Bianchi & Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2018. "Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and Sovereign Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 1166, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Kirchner, Markus & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary-fiscal stabilisation," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    13. John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification," Economics Papers 2005-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    14. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    15. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Nathan Converse & Tomas Williams, 2017. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," School of Government Working Papers 201702, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    17. K. Istrefi & B. Vonnak, 2015. "Delayed Overshooting Puzzle in Structural Vector Autoregression Models," Working papers 576, Banque de France.
    18. Grzegorz Wesoƚowski, 2018. "Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6174-6192, December.
    19. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2019. "China's overseas lending," Kiel Working Papers 2132, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner, 2018. "Learning about Commodity Cycles and Saving-Investment Dynamics in a Commodity-Exporting Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 205-262, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed017:576. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.