IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rco/dpaper/132.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Overconfidence and Bailouts

Author

Listed:
  • Gietl, Daniel

    (LMU Munich)

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that managerial overconfidence and government guarantees contribute substantially to excessive risk-taking in the banking industry. This paper incorporates managerial overconfidence and limited bank liability into a principal-agent model, where the bank manager unobservably chooses effort and risk. An overconfident manager overestimates the returns to effort and risk. We find that managerial overconfidence necessitates an intervention into banker pay. This is due to the bank\'s exploitation of the manager\'s overvaluation of bonuses, which causes excessive risk-taking in equilibrium. Moreover, we show that the optimal bonus tax rises in overconfidence, if risk-shifting incentives are sufficiently large. Finally, the model indicates that overconfident managers are more likely to be found in banks with large government guarantees, low bonus taxes, and lax capital requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Gietl, Daniel, 2018. "Overconfidence and Bailouts," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 132, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rationality-and-competition.de/wp-content/uploads/discussion_paper/132.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gietl, Daniel & Haufler, Andreas, 2018. "Bonus taxes and international competition for bank managers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 41-60.
    2. Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Safer ratios, riskier portfolios: Banks׳ response to government aid," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-28.
    3. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    5. Hirshleifer, David & Luo, Guo Ying, 2001. "On the survival of overconfident traders in a competitive securities market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 73-84, January.
    6. Jijun Niu, 2010. "The effect of CEO overconfidence on bank risk taking," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 3288-3299.
    7. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    8. Efing, Matthias & Hau, Harald & Kampkötter, Patrick & Steinbrecher, Johannes, 2015. "Incentive pay and bank risk-taking: Evidence from Austrian, German, and Swiss banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 123-140.
    9. Grossman, Zachary & Owens, David, 2012. "An unlucky feeling: Overconfidence and noisy feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 510-524.
    10. Anand M. Goel & Anjan V. Thakor, 2008. "Overconfidence, CEO Selection, and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2737-2784, December.
    11. Hendrik Hakenes & Isabel Schnabel, 2014. "Bank Bonuses and Bailouts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 259-288, February.
    12. Reint Gropp & Christian Gruendl & Andre Guettler, 2014. "The Impact of Public Guarantees on Bank Risk-Taking: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 457-488.
    13. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
    14. Grossman, Zachary & Owens, David, 2012. "An unlucky feeling: Overconfidence and noisy feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 510-524.
    15. Christina E. Bannier & Eberhard Feess & Natalie Packham, 2013. "Competition, Bonuses, and Risk-taking in the Banking Industry," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 653-690.
    16. Ho, Po-Hsin & Huang, Chia-Wei & Lin, Chih-Yung & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2016. "CEO overconfidence and financial crisis: Evidence from bank lending and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 194-209.
    17. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    18. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2009. "The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 606-610, May.
    19. Simon Gervais & J. B. Heaton & Terrance Odean, 2011. "Overconfidence, Compensation Contracts, and Capital Budgeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1735-1777, October.
    20. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of professionals and lay men : individual differences within and between tasks?," Papers 05-25, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    21. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2015. "Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 37-60, Fall.
    22. de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique, 2011. "Overconfidence and moral hazard," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 429-451.
    23. Thanassoulis, John & Tanaka, Misa, 2018. "Optimal pay regulation for too-big-to-fail banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 83-97.
    24. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Puri, Manju, 2013. "Managerial attitudes and corporate actions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 103-121.
    25. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
    26. Timothy Besley & Maitreesh Ghatak, 2013. "Bailouts and the Optimal Taxation of Bonus Pay," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 163-167, May.
    27. Dietl, Helmut M. & Grossmann, Martin & Lang, Markus & Wey, Simon, 2013. "Incentive effects of bonus taxes in a principal-agent model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 93-104.
    28. Deshmukh, Sanjay & Goel, Anand M. & Howe, Keith M., 2013. "CEO overconfidence and dividend policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 440-463.
    29. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    30. Browning, Edgar K, 1976. "The Marginal Cost of Public Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 283-298, April.
    31. Humphery-Jenner, Mark & Lisic, Ling Lei & Nanda, Vikram & Silveri, Sabatino Dino, 2016. "Executive overconfidence and compensation structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 533-558.
    32. Chaigneau, Pierre, 2013. "Risk-shifting and the regulation of bank CEOs’ compensation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 778-789.
    33. Kolasinski, Adam C. & Li, Xu, 2013. "Can Strong Boards and Trading Their Own Firm’s Stock Help CEOs Make Better Decisions? Evidence from Acquisitions by Overconfident CEOs," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1173-1206, August.
    34. Suman Banerjee & Mark Humphery-Jenner & Vikram Nanda, 2015. "Restraining Overconfident CEOs through Improved Governance: Evidence from the Sarbanes-Oxley Act," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(10), pages 2812-2858.
    35. Greve, Peder & Nielsen, Sabina & Ruigrok, Winfried, 2009. "Transcending borders with international top management teams: A study of European financial multinational corporations," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 213-224, June.
    36. Greve, Peder & Biemann, Torsten & Ruigrok, Winfried, 2015. "Foreign executive appointments: A multilevel examination," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 674-686.
    37. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2006. "Competition among regulators and credit market integration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 401-430, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gietl, Daniel & Kassner, Bernhard, 2020. "Managerial Overconfidence and Bank Bailouts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 202-222.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gietl, Daniel & Kassner, Bernhard, 2020. "Managerial Overconfidence and Bank Bailouts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 202-222.
    2. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Peng, Shu-Cing & Yeh, Chia-Wei, 2023. "Does import competition from China discipline overconfident CEOs in U.S. firms?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 277-297.
    3. Gietl, Daniel & Haufler, Andreas, 2018. "Bonus taxes and international competition for bank managers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 41-60.
    4. Andreas Haufler & Yukihiro Nishimura, 2023. "Taxing mobile and overconfident top earners," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 913-947, August.
    5. Lee, Jin-Ping & Lin, Edward M.H. & Lin, James Juichia & Zhao, Yang, 2020. "Bank systemic risk and CEO overconfidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Jie Chen & Woon Sau Leung & Wei Song & Marc Goergen, 2018. "Why female board representation matters: The role of female directors in reducing male CEO overconfidence in corporate decisions," Working Papers 2018-12, Swansea University, School of Management.
    7. Tim R. Adam & Valentin Burg & Tobias Scheinert & Daniel Streitz, 2020. "Managerial Biases and Debt Contract Design: The Case of Syndicated Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 352-375, January.
    8. Marius Guenzel & Ulrike Malmendier, 2020. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: The Life Cycle of a CEO Career," NBER Working Papers 27635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Guenzel, Marius, 2020. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: The Life Cycle of a CEO Career," CEPR Discussion Papers 15103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Johannes Brunzel, 2021. "Overconfidence and narcissism among the upper echelons: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 585-623, July.
    11. Huang, Shu-Chun & Chen, Wei-Da & Chen, Yehning, 2018. "Bank liquidity creation and CEO optimism," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 101-117.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Li, Delong & Lu, Lei & Mu, Congming & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Biased beliefs, costly external finance, and firm behavior : A Unified theory," Research Discussion Papers 18/2019, Bank of Finland.
    14. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Ho, Keng-Yu & Ho, Po-Hsin & Nie, Wei-Ying, 2022. "CEO overconfidence and bondholder wealth effects: Evidence from mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Bharati, Rakesh & Doellman, Thomas & Fu, Xudong, 2016. "CEO confidence and stock returns," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-110.
    16. Lin, Tse-Chun & Pursiainen, Vesa, 2023. "Gender differences in reward-based crowdfunding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    18. Ulrike Malmendier, 2018. "Behavioral Corporate Finance," NBER Working Papers 25162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Lai, Yi-Hsun & Tai, Vivian W., 2019. "Managerial overconfidence and directors' and officers' liability insurance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Killins, Robert & Ngo, Thanh & Wang, Hongxia, 2021. "Goodwill impairment and CEO overconfidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    21. Lu, Jing & Ho, Keng-Yu & Ho, Po-Hsin & Ko, Kuan-Cheng, 2023. "CEO overconfidence, lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; bailouts; banking regulation; bonus taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Viviana Lalli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rationality-and-competition.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.